VietNamNet Bridge – Vietnam, for the second time in history, witnessed a trade surplus of $284 million in 2012, or 20 years after the first time. However, the achievement has not been applauded by economists.

When Vietnam exports more than imports?

In 1992, Vietnam for the first time saw the trade surplus of $40 million. It was the time when the national economy began opening to the world, Vietnam’s foreign trade began developing and the demand for imports was still low.

In 2009, Vietnam also exported more than imported by $1.4 billion in the first quarter. However, the trade surplus was obtained because Vietnam re-exported gold, which, in the eyes of economists, did not have much significance, because the exports were not industrial products or services which could generate jobs.

In 2012, Vietnam once again exported more than imported. In fact, the Ministry of Industry and Trade initially planned to see the trade gap of 1.8 billion dollars. One month ago, the ministry adjusted the target, but still thought that the trade gap would be one billion dollars.

Therefore, the trade surplus of 284 million dollars has been praised as a “resounding victory,” which helps create a healthy trade balance, contributes to the GDP growth, helps stabilize the dong/dollar exchange rate and the foreign currency reserves.

Abnormal thing?

Le Thi Minh Thuy, a senior official of the General Statistics Office, said frankly: “The trade surplus this year is abnormal.”

In fact, though the export turnover was high, the total sum of money Vietnam could pocket was not high. The high exports have been attributed to the increases in the exports of phones and accessories exports which brought 13 billion dollars in turnover. Meanwhile, electronics and computer exports brought 7.9 billion dollars, an increase of 69 percent.

Vietnam earned 20.5 billion dollars from the exports of the two groups of products. However, it had to spend 13.1 billion dollars to import the input materials. This means that in fact, Vietnam could pocket 7.4 billion dollars only.

Thuy said that though the export turnover was high, Vietnam could only enjoy a small part of the “cake.” It only could earn a little of money from the assembling and the works with low added values.

There’s another reason that makes economists unhappy about the trade surplus that the exports growth has come mostly from foreign invested enterprises.

The enterprises exported more than imported by 12 billion dollars, contributing 17.7 percentage points to the 18.3 percent of the export growth rate of Vietnam.

Dr Le Dang Doanh, a well-known economist, said the high exports have been achieved thanks to a “big guy” – Samsung Vietnam.

Also according to Doanh, Samsung exported 6 billion dollars in 2011 and 12 billion dollars in 2012. The export items were mainly Samsung Galaxy and flat screen TVs. However, all the input materials needed for making products were imported from China.

This means that the value of products created in Vietnam is just 10 percent, and if deducting the transportation cost, the actual income is 2 percent only.

“Therefore, one should not entertain the illusion that Vietnam has healthy trade growth and we have our pockets clinking with plenty of foreign currencies,” Doanh said.

Trade deficit still exists in trade with China

High trade deficit with China has always been a headache to Vietnam. In 2012, the trade deficit reached 16.7 billion dollars, which shows that Vietnam still has been relying so heavily on the materials from China.

The worrying thing is that the trade deficit with China has been increasing so rapidly. In 2008-2011, the trade deficit hovered around one billion dollars, then soared to 13.5 billion dollars in 2011 and then to 16.7 billion dollar sin 2012.

US$1=VND21,000

Pham Huyen