Speaking at a consultation workshop on Vietnam's draft Strategy for Goods Imports and Exports through 2030, with a vision to 2045, on October 9, Nguyen Cam Trang, a representative of the Ministry of Industry and Trade's Agency of Foreign Trade, said exports would remain a key driver of economic growth as the government pursues its ambition of double-digit expansion.

Against this backdrop, Vietnam needs to reassess its export growth targets for the coming years to align with the country's evolving development priorities, she said.

The draft strategy aims to sustain strong growth in imports and exports while contributing to Vietnam's double-digit economic growth ambitions during 2026-2030.

It also seeks to shift the country's trade model from expansion in volume toward higher-value production, improved productivity and stronger international competitiveness.

Under the proposal, merchandise exports are targeted to grow by an average of 15-16% annually between 2026 and 2030, while imports are expected to increase by 12-13% a year.

Vietnam also aims to maintain a sustainable trade surplus, with the surplus accounting for an average of 3-6% of total export turnover during the period.

By 2045, the country hopes to rank among the world's 10 largest exporting and importing nations, with its trade surplus reaching 7-10% of export value.

Another major priority is to strengthen the role of domestic enterprises and increase the share of processed, manufactured and technology-intensive products in Vietnam's export portfolio.

The draft targets a contribution of approximately 28-30% from domestic enterprises to total national export turnover by 2030, rising to 38-40% by 2045.

Processed and refined products are expected to account for 89-90% of merchandise exports by 2030 and more than 92% by 2045.

Meanwhile, high-tech products are targeted to make up around 50% of the export value of processed and manufactured goods by 2030, increasing to more than 55% by 2045.

Export targets could more than double 2025 levels

The draft strategy presents three scenarios for Vietnam's export performance by 2030.

Under the baseline scenario, exports are projected to reach $953.7 billion. The high-growth scenario sets a target of $1.0411 trillion, while the low-growth scenario puts the figure at $765 billion.

According to data from Vietnam's Customs Department, the country's merchandise exports totaled $475.06 billion in 2025 and reached $434.32 billion during the first nine months of 2026.

Compared with the 2025 figure, achieving the high-growth target would require an additional $566.04 billion in annual exports, bringing total export value to approximately 2.19 times its 2025 level.

Under the baseline scenario, exports would need to increase by $478.64 billion, while the low-growth scenario would require an increase of $289.94 billion.

The ambitious targets have prompted calls for clearer implementation plans and stronger coordination among government agencies and businesses.

Nguyen Hoai Nam, secretary general of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), said the strategy should clearly define its objectives, available resources and specific measures.

He emphasized that broad policy directions must be translated into concrete action programs, complete with implementation timelines and coordination mechanisms involving ministries, local authorities and relevant organizations.

According to Nam, Vietnam has considerable advantages in raw material supplies, but these alone will not be enough to strengthen its position in international markets.

Businesses must invest more heavily in processing, improve product quality, meet increasingly demanding customer requirements and increase the value added to their products.

He also warned that the strategy's feasibility would depend not only on setting ambitious targets but also on removing obstacles during implementation.

Responsibilities should be clearly assigned to individual ministries and agencies, particularly in areas such as raw material supply, quality management and market development.

Pham Van Quan, deputy director of the Ministry of Industry and Trade's Industry Agency, called for greater emphasis on developing supporting industries and helping domestic manufacturers participate more deeply in global supply chains.

He said this would be crucial to gradually reducing Vietnam's dependence on imported raw materials and components, strengthening domestic manufacturing capabilities and giving Vietnamese businesses greater control over stages of the production value chain.

From export volume to quality and efficiency

Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Luong Hoang Thai stressed that international trade has long been an important contributor to Vietnam's economic development.

During certain periods, exports and foreign investment were the main engines of the country's economic growth.

However, he acknowledged that previous import-export strategies had placed considerable emphasis on increasing trade volumes.

When Vietnam's economy was smaller, expanding manufacturing industries through access to international markets and integration into the global economy was essential to generating growth.

After years of development, however, Vietnam's economy has grown substantially, while its trade openness has reached a high level.

The new circumstances require a change in priorities, shifting the focus from expanding trade volumes to improving the quality and efficiency of import-export activities.

Thai said the next strategy should help Vietnam participate more deeply in strategically important stages of global value chains while strengthening links with national policies on science, technology and industrial development.

This would allow trade growth to contribute not only to larger export volumes but also to stronger domestic production capabilities and a stable balance of payments over the long term.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade will continue collecting feedback and refining the draft strategy before submitting it to the Prime Minister for consideration and approval.

Tam An