The full-year target of at least 10 percent sets high expectations for the fourth quarter, with public investment serving as a critical driver.

GDP accelerates as public investment enters decisive phase

Vietnam’s economy is entering the final quarter of the year backed by a positive growth foundation. Third-quarter GDP in 2026 expanded by 9.95 percent, bringing nine-month growth to 9.01 percent, the highest level since 2011.

Other key indicators also highlight economic momentum. Over the nine-month period, industrial production expanded by over 12 percent, total import-export turnover reached $888 billion, registered FDI capital approached $50.4 billion, and disbursed FDI exceeded $21 billion. State budget collection reached approximately VND2,190 trillion, equivalent to nearly 90 percent of the annual estimate.

However, to achieve the full-year target of at least 10 percent, fourth-quarter GDP must expand at a very high rate exceeding 12 percent. This ambitious objective requires pushing growth drivers significantly higher.

Against this backdrop, public investment is identified as one of the most crucial catalysts. The Government requested ministries, sectors, and localities to fully leverage growth potential while striving to disburse 100 percent of public investment capital.

By the end of September, public investment disbursement reached nearly VND643,000 billion, equivalent to 63 percent of the target assigned by the Prime Minister. This indicates that the remaining capital volume requiring disbursement in the final months remains substantial.

In many localities, pressure to disburse public investment funds is being passed down to individual agencies and tied to the accountability of their heads. For example, Quang Tri Province established specific disbursement milestones in October: at least 55 percent of planned capital by October 15 and 65 percent by October 30. Projects utilizing 2025 capital carried over into 2026 are required to achieve 100 percent disbursement.

If disbursement progress accelerates in the fourth quarter, the impact will extend beyond constructed physical structures. Infrastructure investment can create spillover effects across construction, steel, cement, transport, logistics, real estate, tourism, and various service industries.

This explains why double-digit growth targets carry significance beyond mere GDP numbers. If successful, Vietnam will gain additional operational space to expand economic scale and progress toward joining the top 30 largest economies worldwide.

Who benefits from public investment acceleration?

On the stock market, the impact of public investment rarely materializes all at once but instead spreads across different layers of the economy. Construction and installation, and building materials producers tend to benefit first, followed by logistics, real estate and related service industries.

Transport infrastructure is at the center of the new investment cycle, with a series of major projects, including the North-South Expressway, ring roads, Long Thanh International Airport, the North-South high-speed railway, the Hanoi-Quang Ninh metro line and urban metro lines.

Among materials producers, Hoa Phat (HPG) stands out for its large steel production capacity and ability to supply infrastructure projects. Faster infrastructure investment could generate additional demand for construction steel and other steel products used in major projects.

Market movements also indicate that investors are turning their attention back to steel stocks. On October 5, HPG rose 2.24 percent to VND20,500 per share. Several other steel stocks, including TLH, VCA, TIS, TVN, NKG and VGS, also advanced.

For real estate stocks, the impact of public investment stems mainly from improved connectivity and higher land values in urban areas, rather than direct access to public investment funds.

Vingroup (VIC) and Vinhomes (VHM) are notable players in this segment, given their involvement in various areas related to urban development and infrastructure. The completion of ring roads, metro lines and connecting infrastructure could add value to large urban developments built around transport links.

For VHM, better transport infrastructure could support sales and property values in major urban developments. VIC, meanwhile, could benefit from the expansion of infrastructure projects and demand for large-scale investment.

Tourism is another link in the chain. Improvements in road and air transport infrastructure will shorten travel times, make destinations more accessible and create conditions for visitor numbers to grow.

Accelerating public investment disbursement in the fourth quarter, while ensuring construction quality and efficient use of capital, could create more jobs, boost production and stimulate private investment. Alongside consumption, exports and other growth drivers, public investment is expected to help Vietnam achieve its double-digit economic growth target for 2026 while strengthening infrastructure capacity for the years ahead.

Manh Ha