Ha Thu Giang, director of the Credit Department for Economic Sectors at the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) said that as of July 13, outstanding credit of the whole economy had reached VND20.1 quadrillion, up 7.86 percent compared to the end of 2025.

In the first six months of 2026, GDP increased by 8.18 percent over the same period last year, higher than the 7.63 percent of the same period in 2025 and the highest increase in 2011-2026. 

However, the banking system faces growing pressure in supplying capital to the economy. Total social investment demand for 2026 is projected at around VND5.1 quadrillion, climbing to VND38.5 quadrillion for the 2026–2030 period.

Meanwhile, the credit-to-GDP ratio stood at 145 percent in 2025, demonstrating that the economy remains heavily dependent on bank financing.

Can Van Luc, a member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, observed that Vietnam's high growth targets demand vast amounts of capital, whereas bank credit channels are approaching leverage limits.

He noted that in nations maintaining growth above 10 percent, the total investment-to-GDP ratio typically ranges from 39 percent to 43 percent, with capital (including money, technology, machinery, equipment, and part of human resources) contributing roughly 45 percent to 50 percent, or even higher, to economic growth.

However, no economy can indefinitely sustain a growth model primarily driven by capital and labor. Instead, a gradual shift is needed toward science and technology, innovation, institutional reform, and productivity enhancement.

Attracting capital via new channels

Luc said to achieve an average growth rate of around 10 percent through 2030 and about 8 percent during 2031–2045, total investment capital for the 2026–2030 period will require approximately VND38.5 quadrillion.

Within this framework, state capital is about VND8.5 quadrillion and foreign direct investment VND4.8 quadrillion, while domestic and foreign private sectors must contribute VND25.5 quadrillion, or 65 percent of the total capital requirement.

"Private capital must supply nearly two-thirds of total investment needs. The challenge is not only mobilizing more capital but also expanding and enhancing the efficiency of capital conduits," Luc said.

Meanwhile, financial resources for the economy currently stem mainly from bank credit, capital markets, public investment, and foreign investment. However, each channel exhibits distinct limitations.

Bank credit is reaching leverage constraints, whereas equity, bond, and investment fund markets hold vast untapped potential yet remain underdeveloped. Public investment still has room to expand, but capital efficiency requires further improvement.

This reality calls for restructuring the financial system and capital distribution channels toward greater balance, where capital markets must develop faster to fulfill medium- and long-term funding needs and ease pressure on the banking sector.

Nguyen Huu Huan, a lecturer at UEH University, suggested that the International Financial Center could unlock additional medium- and long-term fundraising channels, complementing domestic stock, bond, and institutional investment markets.

The International Financial Center in HCMC could aim to attract $10–30 billion annually during 2026–2030, representing roughly 3–10 percent of the economy's total investment capital demand. 

However, the center must genuinely serve as a gateway channeling international capital into the real economy, rather than merely operating as a registration hub for financial institutions or offering preferential policies.

In a presentation at a recent seminar, experts from the Private Economic Development Research Board (Board IV) noted that Resolution No10 of the Politburo targets foreign direct investment attraction not only to supplement capital, but also to drive technology transfer, develop suppliers, and strengthen linkages with domestic enterprises.

Accordingly, priority should be given to credit, guarantee, and co-financing programs for Vietnamese enterprises capable of joining global value chains, while creating favorable conditions for private firms to access stock, bond, and M&A financing markets.

Speaking on the sidelines of the seminar, Huan noted that in the race to attract FDI, countries like Indonesia and Thailand continually offer incentive policies. Vietnam's competitive edge lies in human resource quality and workforce diligence.

Even so, Vietnam's labor productivity and human resource capabilities still lag behind many regional peers. Vietnam's labor productivity currently equals roughly one-eighth of Singapore's.

"However, if a Vietnamese worker is relocated to Singapore, they achieve the same productivity as in Singapore. Thus, Vietnam must continue investing in institutions, infrastructure, and core technologies under a long-term strategy spanning 5–10 years or more to create growth momentum for the new era," he said.

Nguyen Le