Chinese ships attack Vietnamese boats with water cannons. Photo: Vietnam Coast Guard.

American naval strategist Alfred Thayer Mahan has said that the ability to dominate the ocean will decide the battle "between giants" in the 21st century.

Beijing has been actively building navies for what it calls the "Far Sea Defense” strategy. But with carriers, submarines, and most recently, a mobile oil rig, the "defense" of China can turn to "attack" at any time.

Historically, the countries that mastered the sea dominated the land. Former "superpowers" had dominant naval power: the British Empire in the 17th-19th centuries, the United States and the Soviet Union in the 20th century, and the United States in the 21st century.

China, though it is still far from that position, is not hiding its intentions towards developing and projecting power.

However, America’s ring from the Yellow Sea (stationed in South Korea) to the East China Sea (Okinawa and Taiwan) blocks China’s road to the Pacific Ocean. They have only one door to realize their ambitions: the East Sea.

Controlling the East Sea, Beijing will not only ensure that its "superpower" plan will become reality, but also help it control one of the most important shipping routes in the world, where more than half of the world’s goods are transported every year.

Most of the imported crude oil to China goes through the East Sea (4.5 million out of 6.5 million barrels per day, according to data from the US Energy Information Agency).

The East Sea is also a critical part of the chain of Beijing’s "String of Pearls" strategy, to control the energy – commerce transport route from Africa across the Indian Ocean.

So, it is not a surprise if China increases its claims over the East Sea when it finds that its economic potential is equal to the US (according to the latest report, China’s GDP has surpassed the US).

Furthermore, as the claimants in the region are not US allies (Vietnam), or allies without close ties (the Philippines and Malaysia), China believes that its aggressive actions will not lead to strong interference from Washington.

The story of a rising China that has become more aggressive in the region has already been anticipated. Its causes are hoped-for economic benefits, nationalism, and awareness of the Beijing authorities about their power in the new world order.

Gideon Rachman, of the Financial Times, said that even if China becomes a democracy, it will still behave in this manner.

And if the country stops its economy from rising and falling into crisis, the risk of conflicts to neighboring countries may increase because political tools would be used to distract from economic concerns.

Instability in a country with nuclear weapons and the defense potential of China could be potentially disastrous.  

Thus, no matter what direction China takes, Vietnam will have to face many more challenges from the north in the 21st century. As a weaker state, what is Vietnam’s choice?

In the commentary on China’s illegal oil rig in the exclusive economic zone of Vietnam recently, the famous writer Thomas Friedman of The New York Times wrote that Vietnam is next to an unruly power, which wants to drink its milk and milk of its neighbors.

Friedman said that the only way for Vietnam to cope with China is promoting the strength of national and international unity to "rebalance" the rise of Beijing, so that they cannot break chopsticks one by one.

In Asia, many countries have concerns about China: India, Japan, the Philippines, Malaysia, and South Korea. All have sovereignty disputes with Beijing.

Along with that, the world today is very far from the time when the truth was in the hands of only several powerful countries as a few centuries ago. Today, all modern states must abide by international law.

This will be beneficial to Vietnam if the country handles things transparently, uses international law to protect its rights, while enhancing communication to entice the support of the international community.

In any case, Vietnam needs to avoid provocation of China and only use force for self-defense because, according to Gregory Poling from the Institute for International Strategic Studies (CSIS) in Washington DC, China may want to trap Vietnam.

In the long term, China will conduct aggressive acts on the East Sea because that is the way for them to become a "superpower". Therefore, besides diplomatic and military activities, Vietnam needs to prepare economically: it is growing stronger and reducing dependence on trade and investment from China.

That means the economic relations of the two countries must become more sustainable, and more two-dimensional. Currently, Vietnam has the largest trade deficit with China, which reached over $36 billion last year. In one decade, the trade deficit of Vietnam with China rose 113 times.

Dr. Nguyen Duc Thanh of the Center for Economic and Policy Research said the only way for Vietnam to avoid the danger from China is becoming more civilized and wealthier.

In the Chinese language, the word "crisis" consists of both "risk" and "opportunities". The threat from the rise of China is likely to create opportunities to help Vietnam develop more robustly in the long term.

Khac Giang