return icon Vietnamnet.vn

Vietnam needs breakthrough solutions to quickly stamp out epidemic

Professor Nguyen Thien Nhan has written the following article about how to curb the Covid-19 in Vietnam within three months.

{keywords}

Illustrative image

 

Reviewing 4 waves of Covid-19 in Vietnam from February 2020 to June 2021

Since early 2020, Vietnam has experienced 4 waves of Covid-19 infection.

With a population of 97.6 million (2020), Vietnam is considered to have Covid-19 outbreak when it has at least 976 patients. In the first 3 waves, the number of patients under treatment was under 976. By April 30, 2021, Vietnam had Covid-19 infections, but there was no epidemic at the national level. Vietnam was among 20 countries that did the best in epidemic prevention in the world.

However, the fourth wave of infections has a qualitatively different nature:

- In the previous three waves of infection, it took about 22 days (March 8, 2020 - March 29, 2020; July 27, 2020 - August 17, 2020; January 1, 2021 - February 17, 2021) to reach the peak. For the fourth wave, 36 days have passed and it still has not reached the peak and it is difficult to predict when the current wave will reach its peak. Most likely, the fourth wave will not peak before June 30, 2021, which means the outbreak time is at least 56 days, 2.5 times more than that of the previous three waves.

- Although the peak has not been reached, the number of people being treated has surpassed 6,000, more than 8.4 times over the peak of the 3rd wave, while the peak of the 3rd wave is only 1.4 times higher than that of the 2nd wave. Most likely, when the 4th wave reaches the peak, the number of people under treatment will be over 7,500, more than 10 times higher than that of the 3rd wave.

- In the first three waves, the number of patients per 1 million people when the epidemic reaches its peak was still lower than the epidemic threshold of Vietnam - 976 people. That means Vietnam had Covid-19 infections but not on a national scale. But in the 4th wave of infection, the number of people under treatment was 1,098 on May 13, surpassing the epidemic threshold of 976 people. Vietnam has had a Covid-19 outbreak on a national scale.

- In the first wave of infection, during the time when the disease broke out strongly before reaching its peak, Vietnam had nearly six new patients each day. The numbers were 20 people in the second wave, nearly 29 people in the third wave, and up to 156 people in the 4th wave, from May 5 to June 10. That is, in the current 4th wave of infection, community infection is over five times higher than that of the 3rd wave, and over 25 times than in the first wave.

Without breakthrough solutions, after the fourth wave hits the peak (most likely on June 30), it will take about three more months (90 days) for the number of Covid-19 patients under treatment to decrease to the level before the 4th wave out began (May 5) - less than 500 people. Such a long time of nearly five months will cause great damage to people's lives and economic activities.

The current epidemic situation and preliminary forecasts require breakthrough solutions to stamp out the epidemic, in order to bring lives back to the new normal.

Breakthrough solutions needed in next 3 months

Since May 5, the rate of infection in the community has been almost unchanged. It took about seven days for the number of people under treatment to increase from 1,000 to 2,000, from 2,000 to 3,000 people within about six days, from 3,000 to 4,000 within about four days, from 4,000 to 5,000 within about six days, and from 5,000 to 6,000 within five days. On average, Vietnam has an additional 1,000 people that need to be treated every week.

To stamp out the epidemic, it is necessary to reduce the increase in the number of people being treated in hospitals every day, which is currently an average of 156 people each day, to 0 people/day, then decreasing until the total number of people being treated does not exceed 976.

At present, 46 out of 63 provinces and cities have Covid-19 patients, but the distribution is very uneven among them. Out of a total of 6,068 patients as of 7am, June 11:

- 17 provinces that account for 15.83% of the country's population (15.45 million people) had no patients.

- 25 provinces and cities that account for 40.38% of the country's population (39.41 million people), had only 106 infected people, or 2.69 patients/1 million people so they are considered to be experiencing an outbreak. 

- There are 21 provinces and cities, which account for 43.79% of the country's population (42,742 million people), with 5,962 patients, accounting for 98.3% of the total number of patients in the country. These provinces and cities are considered to have an outbreak. Among these, Bac Giang province had the highest number of patients, with up to 3,454 people; followed by Bac Ninh province with 963 patients; Ho Chi Minh City (613); and Hanoi (317).

The two provinces of Bac Giang (with a population of 1.841 million) and Bac Ninh (1.419 million) account for only 3.3% of the country's population, but they had up to 72.8% of the patients. If vaccination is given to 70% of the population of Bac Giang and Bac Ninh, priotizing workers, civil servants and public employees in the health, education, state management, police, military, and people with underlying diseases, we can eliminate 72.8% of the infection source of the whole country. The number of people who need vaccination is 2.28 million, only 2.33% of the national population.

There are more than 1 million people are members of the frontline force against Covid and those who face high risks of infection in the whole country. It is necessary to concentrate enough vaccines to vaccinate 2.28 million people in Bac Giang and Bac Ninh in June and July. This is the fastest way to stamp out the pandemic.

Ho Chi Minh City (with a population of 9.227 million) and Hanoi (8.28 million) account for 17.9% of the country's population and 15.3% of the total number of patients. They are the two localities with the highest population density in the country and high potential for infection. If vaccinating 70% of the population of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, 15.3% of the country's infection source will be eliminated. The number of people who need to be vaccinated in these two cities is 12.25 million people, equal to 12.55% of the country's population.

It is necessary to mobilize enough vaccines to vaccinate 12.25 million people in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City in July and August.

If we do it that way, within three months (June to August), we only need to vaccinate 14.53 million people, equal to 14.9% of the population, to eliminate more than 88% of the source of infection, completely stamping out the epidemic in the whole country.

If we can buy more vaccines, the remaining 17 provinces and cities with Covid-19 patients, including Lang Son, Dien Bien, Vinh Phuc, Da Nang, Ha Nam, Kien Giang, Khanh Hoa, Ba Ria - Vung Tau, Ha Tinh, Tay Ninh, Hai Duong, Soc Trang, Hung Yen, Ben Tre, Long An, Thai Binh, Quang Nam, with a total population of 21.975 million, equal to 22.5% of the country's population and 10 .1% of the total number of Covid-19 patients in the country. The number of people who need vaccination is 15.38 million people.

If the vaccination in these provinces can be implemented in August and September, then we will have vaccinated 30.91 million people, equal to 31.7% of the population, and will eliminate 98. 3% of the country's current sources of infection.

After that, if Vietnam has more vaccines, the people in 25 provinces and cities that have a very small number of patients will be vaccinated. These provinces have a total population of 39.41 million so the number of people who need vaccination is 27.59 million.

By November, if we have more vaccines to vaccinate the people in the 17 provinces that are currently free of Covid-19, with a population of 15.45 million, we will complete the vaccination for 70% of the country's population. The number of people who need vaccination in these 17 provinces is 10.82 million.

The breakthrough solution proposed here to stamp out the current 4th wave is the optimal vaccination route: Vaccinations should be completed in each province and city in order of priority, based on the current situation of the pandemic.

Prof. Nguyen Thien Nhan

Three keys to fight against Covid-19 in Vietnam

Three keys to fight against Covid-19 in Vietnam

Along with the 5K message, Vietnam is strictly implementing three counterattacks: large-scale testing; implementation of a vaccine strategy; and application of technology for Covid-19 tracing.

MORE NEWS

Foreigners take cruises on picturesque Ha Long Bay

On a cruise to discover the one-of-a-kind Ha Long Bay, visitors can experience interesting activities such as kayaking, visiting Sung Sot Cave, and savoring a variety of dishes made from fresh seafood.

The legend of the walking monolith

Mother Elephant Rock Mountain (Voi Me Rock Mountain), also known as the biggest monolith in Vietnam, appears as a back of a giant elephant lying in the middle of the Central Highlands.

Vietnamese network operators now manufacturing cameras

Most cameras provided in the local market are foreign made.

Vietnam’s most modern library

Located at National Economics University, the most modern library in Vietnam covers around 10,000 square metres and is funded by the World Bank through the Support for Autonomous Higher Education Project.

China purchases more Vietnamese fruit for lunar new year holiday

Chinese demand for fruit for the lunar new year holiday accounts for up to 50 percent of Vietnam’s total fruit exports. Experts warn that the products may get stuck at border gates.

Press agencies need to become technological institutions: minister

Twenty years ago, editors-in-chief took pride in the fact that while printing machines were working, distributors were sitting eating bread and waiting for the first newspapers to be put out to deliver.

VIETNAM BUSINESS NEWS DECEMBER 4

Vietnamese innovative startups should strive to become regional, international “unicorns”: PM

Seven more prosecuted in bribery case at foreign ministry

The investigation agency under the Ministry of Public Security has issued decisions to prosecute, arrest and search the residences and workplaces of seven more individuals for their involvement in a bribery case at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

VIETNAM NEWS HEADLINES DECEMBER 4

President arrives in Seoul, beginning state visit to RoK

IFC plans to pour 320 million USD into three Vietnamese banks

The International Finance Corporation (IFC), a member of the World Bank Group, has proposed a total investment of 320 million USD in three Vietnamese banks, reported the Nikkei Asia.

Girl with brittle bone disease opens class for poor students

As she wasn't able to fulfil her dream of becoming a teacher due to congenital vitreous disease, Nguyen Thi Ngoc Tam opened a free class for poor students.

Miniature-human sculptures popular with customers

The price of a sculpture ranges from one to five million VND, depending on the difficulty of the model. Eight to 19 ordered products are made per day to guarantee progress as well as the quality of the sculpture for the customer.

Lacquer village outlasts centuries-old craft

Alongside a wide range of products made from natural materials such as wood, bamboo and rattan, the village also has created new gold- and silver-inlaid products made from ceramic, pottery, and composite.

Local firms do business in P2P lending market

P2P Lending has become a hot issue in Vietnam, especially with the participation of Chinese businesses.

Vietnam to hold first cat fish festival soon

Vietnam’s first cat fish festival is scheduled to take place in the southern province of Dong Thap on December 16-17.
back_to_top