In its report to the National Assembly, the Government forecasted that Vietnam’s GDP growth rate in 2022 would be about 8%, exceeding the set target of 6-6.5%.

According to statistics, Vietnam's economic growth has had a positive recovery since early 2022 while many economies in the region and the world have been facing risks of recession. 

In Q1, Q2 and Q3/2022, GDP growth rates reached 5.05%, 7.72% and 13.67%, respectively. Economic growth rate for January-September 2022 increased by 8.83. The estimated 8% of GDP growth rate for 2022 is the highest in 15 years.

Since 2007 (above 8.4%), GDP growth has tended to decrease. Except for 2018 with GDP growth rate of 7.08%, growth in the remaining years was below 7%. For the period 2016-2020, Vietnam's average growth rate was 5.8% while the set target was 7%/year.

Thanks to high GDP growth, total state budget revenue for the whole year is estimated at $70.18 billion – exceeding by $8.8 billion or 14.3 per cent as compared to the target set in November last year by the National Assembly, also up 2.9 per cent against the figure  last year. 

This is an important contribution to ensuring sufficient resources for the budgeted expenditure tasks, and at the same time, room for fiscal policy management and policies to support growth, stability and improvement of people's living standards.

However, signs of difficulties appeared in the later months of 2022. These are uncertainties from the financial market, corporate bonds, securities, rising interest rates, lack of orders from foreign partners, slow disbursement of public investment, and a decline in foreign investment.

The Government assessed: there are many potential risks and challenges for stabilizing the macro-economy, curbing inflation, and ensuring large balances due to adverse developments from the world economic and political situation, which make global inflation increase and economic growth in many countries decline, even fall into recession, putting pressure on prices, interest rates and exchange rates.

Therefore, the Government cautiously set a GDP growth target of about 6.5% for 2023. 

Luong Bang