The plenary session of the fifth Vietnam Economic Forum took place under the chairmanship of Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh on December 17.  

8% GDP growth rate 

Tran Tuan Anh, member of the Politburo, and head of the Party Central Committee’s Economics Commission, said despite adverse impacts in 2022, Vietnam has overcome and regained its growth momentum.

Vietnam expects to obtain a high GDP growth rate of over 8 percent, while inflation was curbed as expected, exports grew by 13.4 percent in the first 11 months of the year, and the trade surplus reached $10.6 billion. And foreign capital disbursement increased by 15.1 percent over the same period last year.

In 2022, the government implemented policies to support the enterprises’ consolidation capacity, including policies on tax and fee remissions. 

However, total budget collections by the end of November still exceeded the plan by 16.1 percent and increased by 17.4 percent compared with the same period last year.

“The figures show that consumption strongly recovered after the pandemic and the enterprise sector effectively reacted to opportunities opened after the pandemic. They quickly set to promote production and export, “ Anh said.

ADB’s Andrew Jeffries said that effective operations in many fields helped Vietnam grow by 8.8 percent in the first three quarters of 2022. 

Vietnam’s exports boomed thanks to global demand recovery and export prices increased. This helped Vietnam obtain a trade surplus of $10.6 billion in the first 11 months of 2022. 

The FDI disbursement increased by 7.8 percent and is estimated to reach $7.7 billion this year, the highest level in the last five years.

These factors prompted the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to raise its predicted GDP growth rate in 2022 to 7.5 percent.

However, the economist warned about headwinds, which are weaker global demand, monetary policy tightening and problems in the corporate bond market.

The headwinds

Andrea Coppola from the World Bank said that China, Eurozone and the US are experiencing a difficult period which is exacerbating the headwinds in emerging markets and developing economies.

The headwinds led ADB to adjust the predicted GDP growth rate of Vietnam in 2023 from 6.7 percent to 6.3 percent.

In such conditions, Vietnam should work towards balancing inflation and economic growth, while ensuring the operation of the financial system, according to Jeffries of ADB. 

He said that Vietnam should be careful about inflation in 2023.

Luong Bang