In the context of a sharp decline in Vietnam’s pepper output, Thailand, Egypt and Pakistan have unexpectedly ramped up purchases of the commodity often referred to as the country’s “black gold” during the first three months of the year.

Preliminary data from the General Department of Customs shows that by April 15, Vietnamese enterprises had exported nearly 80,630 tonnes of pepper, generating US$522.6 million in revenue.

Compared to the same period last year, pepper exports rose strongly by 37.7 percent in volume and 29.7 percent in value, indicating a slight decline in the average export price.

In terms of export markets, the US remained the largest buyer of Vietnamese pepper in the first quarter of 2026, accounting for 26.75 percent of total export volume, up from 23.28 percent a year earlier.

Notably, exports to several markets recorded exceptional growth in both volume and value.

Specifically, Vietnam exported nearly 3,117 tonnes of pepper to Thailand in the first three months of the year, earning US$22.55 million. Compared to the same period last year, exports to Thailand surged by 122 percent in volume and 100.5 percent in value.

As a result, Thailand became the third-largest importer of Vietnamese pepper, behind only the US and Germany.

Exports to Egypt also saw a sharp increase, rising 229.3 percent in volume and 205 percent in value. Meanwhile, shipments to Pakistan grew by 132.1 percent in volume and 112.5 percent in value.

According to the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA), the pepper market at the beginning of 2026 is facing a supply-demand imbalance. Domestic production for the 2026 crop is forecast at only 170,000 to 180,000 tonnes, a sharp decline of 15 to 20 percent compared to the previous season due to unfavorable weather conditions and aging plantations.

At the same time, replanting efforts remain limited due to competition from higher-value crops and the lack of new agricultural land, the association noted.

Globally, pepper production in 2026 is projected to reach around 530,000 tonnes, slightly higher than in 2025 but still below 2024 levels. Meanwhile, demand for the spice continues to remain strong.

The VPSA believes that with supply remaining constrained, pepper prices are likely to stay elevated over the medium and long term.

In the short term, however, domestic pepper prices have continued to decline from the peak of VND150,000 per kilogram (US$5.90/kg), as supply increases during the new harvest season. The harvest is expected to conclude by the end of April, with domestic prices projected to hover around VND140,000 per kilogram (US$5.50/kg).

Tam An