Roughly VND 2.6 quadrillion (around USD 98 billion) has been injected into the Vietnamese economy in 2025, and this figure could rise further by year-end and into 2026. It may serve as a major catalyst for the country’s USD 200 billion stock market.

Record-high credit injection in 2025

The year 2025 has witnessed one of the most aggressive credit expansions in the history of Vietnam’s banking sector.

As of November 27, total outstanding credit reached over VND 18.2 quadrillion, marking a 16.56% increase from the end of 2024. This growth far surpasses the 11.47% recorded during the same period last year and even exceeds the full-year growth of 15.09% in 2024.

In U.S. dollars, the banking system has injected roughly USD 98 billion into the economy in the first 11 months of 2025 alone - a credit growth unmatched in at least the past decade.

At the government’s regular press briefing on December 6, Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) Pham Thanh Ha emphasized that, despite global uncertainties ranging from geopolitical tensions and rising protectionism to climate change, the SBV has managed monetary policy with flexibility, foresight, and synchronization.

As a result, 11-month inflation was contained at 3.29%, well below the 4.5–5% target. Core inflation was 3.21%, and GDP growth reached 7.85% in the first nine months, with strong momentum expected through the end of the year.

Liquidity across the banking system remained ample throughout most of 2025, lending rates trended downward, and the exchange rate remained relatively stable.

These favorable conditions enabled the SBV to pursue aggressive credit growth without triggering inflationary pressures.

Banks are now ramping up capital mobilization to meet rising credit demand. Meanwhile, public investment also saw a significant boost in 2025, with many ministries and localities disbursing 80–90% of their planned allocations.

The SBV is already preparing policy tools and scenarios for 2026, aiming to maintain low interest rates and ample liquidity to support double-digit economic growth.

This means another round of money injection, potentially on par with 2025, is likely in 2026 - an anticipated driver for the stock market.

A $200 billion stock market on the cusp of transformation

As more capital flows into the economy, Vietnam’s stock market - currently valued at over USD 200 billion - faces a historic opportunity to take off in 2026.

The macroeconomic foundation is broadly favorable.

Credit growth is targeted at a high 15–20%, interest rates are expected to remain low, public investment continues to provide strong momentum, and exports and domestic consumption are recovering.

Major private conglomerates like Vingroup (VIC), Hoa Phat (HPG), Masan (MSN), VietJet (VJC), Gelex (GEX), Vinhomes (VHM), Techcombank (TCB), and VPBank (VPB) all stand to benefit directly from supportive credit and policy measures.

These corporate giants were key contributors to the VN-Index’s rally from April to October.

Another potential boost comes from the increasingly likely FTSE market classification upgrade, which could elevate Vietnam from frontier to emerging market status in 2026.

If successful, foreign capital inflows could reach USD 2–4 billion within 6–12 months after the upgrade, mirroring what occurred in Kuwait (2020) and Saudi Arabia (2019).

Such an event would deliver a strong liquidity and valuation boost for Vietnamese equities.

Short-term caution remains

In the near term, however, the market may face correction pressures.

As of the end of last week (December 6), the VN-Index had risen for four consecutive weeks, closing at 1,741.32 points - just 3% shy of its all-time high.

The VN30 group of large caps has shown the strongest growth, while midcap and small-cap stocks remain 10–30% below their peaks.

Despite improved liquidity, average trading value remains modest at VND 26–28 trillion (USD 1.0–1.1 billion) per session, still lagging the index’s rally.

Many securities firms agree that the VN-Index is facing strong resistance between 1,760 and 1,770 points and may undergo short-term consolidation through December 2025 and into Q1 2026.

Nonetheless, the medium- and long-term trend remains bullish, especially as SBV has addressed liquidity challenges by raising the open market operations (OMO) rate to 4.5% and selling USD through forward contracts.

According to CSI Securities, the VN-Index is currently testing resistance around 1,760 points, with signs of increasing selling pressure. A temporary correction toward 1,720 may precede the next upward leg.

Pinetree Securities believes the market has already priced in all negative news and bottomed out at around 1,580 points on November 10.

From here, the uptrend is expected to continue - it’s only a question of timing.

If the anticipated 2026 credit wave and foreign inflows from the market upgrade arrive simultaneously, the VN-Index could break its all-time high and reach 2,000 points in 2026, as predicted by several institutions and analysts.

After pumping VND 2.6 quadrillion in 2025, another round of stimulus in 2026, coupled with the FTSE upgrade, could mark a historic turning point for Vietnam’s stock market.

This may be the perfect window for long-term investors to confidently allocate capital to leading enterprises and ride the next wave of growth.

As of 10:15 a.m. on December 8, the VN-Index had gained nearly 17 points (+1%) to reach 1,758.

The rally was largely driven by Vingroup (VIC), which hit its daily limit-up for the second straight session, adding VND 9,900 to reach VND 152,700 per share - equivalent to around VND 305,000/share when adjusted for a 1:1 stock split.

Manh Ha