Its ADO (Asian Development Outlook) released April 11 predicted a growth rate of 6 percent in 2024 and 6.2 percent in 2025. 

According to ADB, global demand decline and high interest rates had a big impact on Vietnam’s growth in 2023. However, a monetary policy that supported growth, plus large-scale public investment, were effective measures to maintain growth.

The recovery in many fields, including processing and manufacturing for export, the service sector and agricultural production, are supporting Vietnam’s recovery momentum.

A positive FDI (foreign direct investment) capital inflow, a trade surplus, domestic consumption recovery, and  fiscal policy stimulus, empowered by public investment, all are considered the key to promote growth in 2024.

ADB Vietnam Country Director Shantanu Chakraborty said that Vietnam’s economy is expected to witness firm growth this year and next year, despite great challenges.

However, he warned that global geopolitical uncertainties and structural limitations of the national economy may impede growth. 

Weak global demand, a slow economic recovery, and delays in interest rate normalization in the US and other developed economies, plus geopolitical tensions, may hinder Vietnam’s export-based full growth recovery in 2024.

In February 2024, The Banker placed Vietnam among the countries with the sharpest growth rates in Southeast Asia after recognizing a groundbreaking growth rate of 5.1 percent in 2023 and expecting 6-6.5 percent growth rate in 2024.

According to The Banker, Vietnam is expected to obtain a high growth rate this year amid the increase in number of foreign companies setting up production bases in Vietnam, as well as the increase in the number of tourists.

The magazine believes that GDP growth recovery will be supported by exports, tourism and production increases, positive domestic consumption and warming up of the real estate market.

The growing tendency of multinationals relocating their production bases out of China is also expected to benefit Vietnam. The US is also considering granting market economy status to Vietnam.

Vincente Nguyen of AFC Vietnam Fund, in an interview with VietNamNet earlier this year, predicted that Vietnam’s economy would make a breakthrough this year.

Manh Ha