The 2026–2030 period marks the beginning of a new cycle for Vietnam’s real estate sector - one filled with opportunities but also mounting risks as the market braces for a surge in supply and a departure from the synchronized price hikes of previous years.

Nguyen Anh Que, Chairman of G6 Group, told VietNamNet that the outlook for 2026 is optimistic but complex. Vietnam still considers real estate a key driver of economic growth, and investment procedures are becoming more streamlined. This has helped unlock supply and address pent-up demand.

In addition, credit policy remains supportive. The credit growth cap is expected to stay at a generous level - at least 14% - and interest rates are projected to remain moderate. While not as low as the "cheap money" era of 2024–2025, rates will likely stay below the highs of 2010–2011 and 2022–2023.

But along with opportunity comes risk. The volume of new real estate projects in the upcoming cycle is forecast to be immense. Some experts believe supply could be 30 to 50 times greater than in past periods. Ghost towns and fragmented developments that emerged after 2008 are expected to become more pronounced from 2027 as the market struggles to absorb excessive inventory.

In addition to oversupply, ongoing risks from corporate bonds, bad debts in the banking sector, and volatile global factors - such as exchange rates, gold prices, and raw material costs - will all put pressure on the real estate landscape.

According to Que, this cycle will not mirror the past. Previously, all segments - land plots, condominiums, and resorts - tended to rise in tandem. This time, price increases will be more selective, occurring only in locations with compelling development narratives.

“For example, Phu Quoc is being upgraded to host APEC 2027, and new policy incentives are being introduced. Despite minimal price growth over the last seven years, this area could gain significant traction,” he said.

Other hotspots include areas near planned high-speed rail stations and regions slated for large-scale developments like deep-water ports, major industrial zones, or mega urban projects. These areas are expected to benefit from improved infrastructure and heightened investor interest.

Meanwhile, Giang Huynh, Director of Research and Consultancy at Savills Ho Chi Minh City, noted that the Vietnamese real estate market is undergoing a period of structural adjustment. Rather than a broad-based recovery, she anticipates a more cautious and segmented rebound shaped by macroeconomic policy, monetary tightening, and a revamped legal framework.

“The next growth phase will likely take clearer shape from 2026–2027, but investors should expect selective momentum, not uniform price rallies,” Huynh explained.

Investors face tougher choices ahead

Discussing individual segments, Que believes condominium prices in Vietnam’s provinces will continue to climb due to rising material costs and persistent housing demand. However, in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, prices could soften.

“In the two major cities, prices have already skyrocketed. Meanwhile, the growing availability of social housing will exert downward pressure,” he said.

As for land plots, Que predicts limited upside in Hanoi's outskirts, which have already seen significant appreciation. In contrast, Ho Chi Minh City’s suburban areas - especially Binh Duong and Ba Ria–Vung Tau - may see continued price growth.

For resort properties, future gains will depend heavily on tourism and investment inflows. Even projects with 50–70-year usage terms could appreciate if the destination attracts visitors and capital. On the other hand, even legally sound developments with good infrastructure may struggle if they fail to attract interest.

“2026 will be a year of acceleration for the new real estate cycle,” Que emphasized. “But we’re entering this phase amid global and domestic uncertainty. A single news headline could sway the market. Still, opportunity exists for those who know how to sift gold from sand.”

He urged investors to prioritize liquidity, real housing demand, and financial sustainability. Comparing prices with neighboring areas, evaluating the usability and income-generating potential of the asset, and ensuring legal transparency - such as red book (land use rights) status - are essential.

Huynh echoed this view, advising investors to shift from short-term speculation to long-term value.

“In this new environment, the market demands a more disciplined approach - focusing on asset quality, legal status, and actual utility,” she said.

Nguyen Le