According to data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs, in the first nine months of 2024, Vietnam exported 6.96 million tons of rice, an 8.4% increase year-on-year, generating $4.35 billion in revenue, up 23%.

In the past nine months, rice exports to ASEAN surged by 32.6% compared to the same period last year, accounting for 73% of the nation's total rice exports. However, rice exports to China have drastically declined.

Specifically, over the past nine months, rice exports to China reached only 241,000 tons, bringing in $141.2 million. This marks a sharp 72% decrease compared to the same period last year.

Historically, China has been a major buyer of Vietnamese rice. In 2012, China became Vietnam's largest rice customer, accounting for 27.5% of the total export value.

Between 2012 and 2016, the value of Vietnamese rice exports to China remained relatively stable. In 2017, exports to China surged to nearly $1.03 billion, accounting for almost 40% of total rice export value.

However, in 2019, the export value dropped unexpectedly to $240.3 million, before recovering in the subsequent years.

Now, with a figure of $141.2 million, Vietnam's rice exports to China have officially hit a historic low, falling significantly below the $192.9 million recorded during the same period in 2019.

Adding to the concerns, there has been more bad news suggesting that rice prices are likely to decline in the near future.

Recently, Indonesia, Vietnam's second-largest rice customer, announced the cancellation of a tender to buy 340,000 tons of rice. Indonesia's Bulog agency adjusted the scope of the international tender, inviting India to participate, unlike previous tenders that only involved Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Pakistan.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has forecasted that India's rice exports for 2025 will increase to 21 million tons, while exports from Brazil, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam are expected to decrease.

India's move to lift its export ban on rice, along with a reduction in export taxes on brown rice and parboiled rice from 20% to 10%, has raised concerns. According to Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), this development will likely affect Vietnam's export prices. Therefore, businesses and associations need to closely monitor the situation to avoid being caught off guard.

Mr. Hai emphasized that Vietnam's agriculture sector is shifting towards producing high-quality and specialty rice varieties, such as fragrant rice. This approach helps diversify Vietnam's products, avoiding direct competition with Indian rice exports and minimizing potential impacts.

According to the Vietnam Food Association, as of October 24, the export price of 5% broken rice from Vietnam dropped to $531 per ton, 25% broken rice was priced at $503 per ton, and 100% broken rice was at $432 per ton.

In September, the average export price of Vietnamese rice was $609 per ton, marking the lowest level in a year and the first month in 2024 where export prices saw negative growth compared to the same month in 2023.

However, in the cumulative nine-month period of 2024, Vietnam's average rice export price remained at $624 per ton, up 13.1% from the same period last year.

Tam An