The February 11 trading session on Vietnam’s stock market delivered an impressive breakout, injecting optimism into investors just days before the Lunar New Year holiday.

By the close, the VN-Index had surged 42.82 points, or 2.44 percent, to 1,796.85 points, edging close to the 1,800 mark.

The VN30-Index also climbed strongly, gaining 49.32 points to reach 2,000.9 points.

Liquidity spiked to nearly $1.26 billion on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HoSE), signaling a powerful return of capital flows compared to previous sessions.

Market breadth tilted overwhelmingly toward buyers, with 273 stocks advancing, including 11 hitting their ceiling prices.

Only 47 stocks were unchanged and 67 declined.

Within the 30 blue-chip stocks of the VN30 basket, 27 rose while just three fell, including GAS, GVR and PLX.

Green spread broadly across sectors, notably real estate, banking and aviation.

Stocks linked to billionaire Pham Nhat Vuong led the rally.

Vingroup (VIC) jumped VND9,300 to VND150,800 per share.

Vinhomes (VHM) gained VND1,700 to VND103,000.

Vincom Retail (VRE) rose VND450 to VND29,400.

Vinpearl (VPL) added VND1,500 to VND86,000.

Banking stocks also played a key role in driving the index higher.

BIDV (BID) increased VND1,400 to VND48,500.

VietinBank (CTG) climbed VND800 to VND37,900.

HDBank (HDB) advanced VND1,000 to VND27,800.

Sacombank (STB) rose VND1,600 to VND61,100.

Vietcombank (VCB) added VND1,600 to VND64,700.

VPBank (VPB) gained VND1,700 to VND28,300.

In aviation, VietJet (VJC) stood out, soaring VND5,000 to VND168,000 per share.

The rally propelled Vietnamese billionaires’ wealth to fresh highs.

According to Forbes, Pham Nhat Vuong’s net worth rose by $2.6 billion, or 11.6 percent, on February 11 to reach $24.9 billion, placing him 94th globally.

Billionaire Nguyen Thi Phuong Thao also benefited, with her fortune increasing to $4.1 billion, ranking 1,009th in the world.

The surge was underpinned by improving market sentiment.

Investor concerns over interbank interest rates eased after overnight rates fell from 17 percent per year last week to below 10 percent by February 6.

The decision to reduce required reserves by 50 percent for certain banks involved in restructuring also supported system liquidity.

Capital has gradually shifted from gold and real estate back into equities amid expectations of stronger economic growth.

Pre-Tet selling pressure has largely subsided.

Foreign investors stepped up net buying of Vietnamese shares.

Market poised for post-Tet upswing

The February 11 breakout was not merely a short-lived spike but a reflection of renewed vitality in Vietnam’s equity market.

Although liquidity recovered only moderately, stock prices rose decisively on proactive buying flows, suggesting that selling pressure had largely been absorbed ahead of Tet.

According to SSI Research, historical data indicate a 75 percent probability of market gains after Tet.

The VN-Index is currently trading at a projected 2026 P/E ratio of around 13 times, below its 10-year average, creating an attractive valuation “trough.”

At a deeper level, macroeconomic tailwinds are supporting the market.

Foreign capital could accelerate into Vietnam on expectations of a stock market upgrade from emerging to advanced emerging status.

Plans to establish an international financial center in Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang are also expected to attract substantial inflows, particularly from ETF funds.

However, the VanEck Vectors Vietnam ETF (VNM ETF) recorded net sales of $22 million last week, focusing on certain stocks such as HPG and SSI.

Total assets of the fund remain at $617 million, with significant weightings in VHM and VIC.

Large-cap stocks are trading at relatively low valuations, opening up opportunities.

SSI highlighted several low P/E names, including PNJ, MWG, VNM, HPG, HT1, DCM, PHR and MBB.

Certain major real estate and steel stocks are drawing attention ahead of expanded public investment and mega-projects set to roll out in 2026.

Pham Nhat Vuong has recently entered the steel sector with VinMetal, while Hoa Phat, Hoa Sen and Ton Dong A are branching into industrial real estate and social housing.

The stock market is forecast to attract larger capital flows as alternative investment channels become less appealing.

Global investors have recently shown signs of rotating out of US equities to hunt for undervalued stocks in Europe, Japan and emerging markets.

The US dollar has weakened by 10 percent from its 2022 peak against a basket of major currencies, providing additional support to emerging markets such as Vietnam.

Nevertheless, risks stemming from US debt levels and political volatility could still spill over into global markets.

Manh Ha