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Vietnam to become the 4th largest economy in Southeast Asia: IMF

Vietnam's GDP is estimated to reach US$340.6 billion this year, making it the fourth-largest economy in Southeast Asia.

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Vietnam is the only country in Southeast Asia which is forecasted to have positive growth this year, at 1.6 per cent and will reach 6.7 per cent by 2021.

This is revealed in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday.

Accordingly, Vietnam is the only country in Southeast Asia which is forecasted to have positive growth this year, at 1.6 per cent and will reach 6.7 per cent by 2021.

IMF forecasts Vietnam's economy will rank fourth in Southeast Asia this year, surpassing Singapore and Malaysia.

Specifically, the country's GDP is estimated to reach US$340.6 billion, exceeding Singapore with $337.5 billion and Malaysia with $336.3 billion.

Meanwhile, Thailand's GDP will reach $509.2 billion this year, the Philippines $367.4 billion, and Indonesia $1.088 trillion.

For GDP per capita, the IMF forecasts that Vietnam's GDP per capita ranks sixth in ASEAN, reaching $3,497 per person this year, followed by the Philippines with $3,372, Laos $2,567, Cambodia $1,572 and Myanmar $1,332.

Overall, the average growth forecast for ASEAN-5 member countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam will decrease by 3.4 per cent, while that of Asian emerging and developing countries will decrease by 1.7 per cent.

China continues to be the only major economy expected to grow, reaching 1.9 per cent this year and up to 8.2 per cent by 2021. For the US, the IMF forecasts that the country's GDP will decrease by 4.3 per cent this year.

Economies of France, Italy, the UK and Spain are forecasted to decrease by about 10 per cent. For Europe, the figure is 8.3 per cent.

IMF revised the global GDP forecast to fall by 4.4 per cent this year, and will be up to 5.2 per cent by 2021.

The baseline projection assumes that social distancing will continue next year but will subsequently fade over time as vaccine coverage expands and therapies improve. Local transmission is assumed to be brought to low levels everywhere by the end of 2022.

"We were projecting a somewhat less severe though still deep recession this year, relative to our June forecast," said Gita Gopinath, IMF's economic counsellor and director of research.

“Moreover, recovery is not assured while the pandemic continues to spread. With renewed upticks in COVID-19 infections in places that had reduced local transmission to low levels, reopenings have paused, and targeted shutdowns are being reinstated. Economies everywhere face difficult paths back to pre-pandemic activity levels,” she noted.  VNS

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