Vietnam is set to experience a significant shift in its weather patterns starting this September, with an early arrival of cold air and an increased frequency of storms and tropical depressions, particularly in the East Sea. This change is expected to intensify through the end of the year.

According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, there is currently a 60-70% chance that the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) will transition to a La Niña phase between September and November, potentially leading to an above-average number of storm systems during this period.

The Center predicts that the number of storm systems developing in the East Sea could reach or exceed the historical average of 5.9, with the possibility of more than the average 2.9 systems making landfall in Vietnam. This heightened activity is due to the expected La Niña conditions, which typically influence storm frequency and intensity in the region.

Regions particularly at risk include Central and Southern Vietnam, where increased storm formation is likely. Hoang Phuc Lam, Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, highlighted the potential for severe weather phenomena such as thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning, and strong winds to occur nationwide. While northern and central areas may still experience heatwaves in September, these are expected to subside by October.

The rainy season in central Vietnam is forecasted to commence in line with historical averages by late August and will likely reach its peak in October and November. Under the influence of La Niña, rainfall across most parts of Vietnam, especially in the Northern and Central regions, could increase by 10-30%, while the Central Highlands and Southern regions might see a 5-20% increase.

As the year progresses into December 2024 and early 2025, ENSO is anticipated to maintain a La Niña phase with a 65-75% probability. This could result in a continuation of storm activity near the historical average for late-year systems. Additionally, the rainy season might extend into mid-December across the Central, Central Highlands, and Southern regions, with unseasonal rains possible in early 2025.

Cold air events are expected to become more severe starting in late December, with the possibility of prolonged cold spells and frost, particularly affecting the northern mountainous regions of Vietnam. These conditions are likely to persist into January and February 2025.

Given these forecasts, it is crucial for regional authorities and citizens to prepare for potentially severe weather conditions. Proactive measures, including disaster preparedness and public awareness campaigns, will be essential to mitigate the impacts of the expected weather anomalies.

Meteorologists and climatologists will continue to monitor these developments closely, providing updates as more precise information becomes available. The overarching goal remains to ensure safety and minimize the disruptive impacts of these climatic events on the lives of Vietnamese citizens.

Bao Anh