The Board of Executive Directors of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just released the latest forecasts on the Vietnamese economy. Accordingly, the strong recovery of the Vietnamese economy in 2022 has gone slow due to "adverse winds" at the end of last year and the first half of this year.

The IMF predicts that the driving force for economic growth in 2023 will come from recovering exports and loosening policies (especially fiscal policy).

Inflation is expected to remain controlled below the target of 4.5%. Vietnam can return to high growth in the medium term with the support of structural reforms.

IMF Executive Directors unanimously applauded many Vietnamese authorities for their swift actions to maintain economic stability when facing plenty of difficulties both at home and abroad.

However, risks are still increasing and further efforts are needed to protect macro-financial stability, promote drastic reform, address vulnerable factors, and ensure green, strong and inclusive growth in the medium term.

In addition, because the room to loosen monetary policy is limited, fiscal policy needs to play a key role in supporting economic activity if necessary.

The IMF recommends strengthening the fiscal framework, budgeting processes and increasing revenue over the medium term to support ambitious socio-economic development plans.

The organization hails competent agencies for effectively controlling inflation risks, but emphasize that monetary policy needs to continue to be cautious in a complex context and limited policy.

It also appreciates flexible exchange rates and encourages continued progress in this area along with modernization of the monetary policy framework.

GDP growth remains optimistic

Realizing that 2023 will see many challenges for the Vietnamese economy, experts from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) have also forecast that Vietnam's GDP growth will reach 5.8%, slightly down compared to last April.

However, ADB believes that Vietnam's GDP growth rate in 2023 is still at the top compared to other countries in the Southeast Asia region.

By 2024, with economic growth forecast at 6%, Vietnam's GDP growth will rank second in Southeast Asia, only behind the Philippines at 6.2%. Inflation is projected to go down, possibly at 3.8% in 2023 and 4% in 2024.

In the most recent report, the investment fund from Finland - Pyn Elite Fund identified Vietnam as one of the fastest growing economies in Asia.

The Fund expects Vietnam's economic growth rate to continue to stand at 5-7% annually in the near future. The annual profit growth of listed companies will remain at 12 - 25%.

Source: VOV