VietNamNet Bridge – The domestic assets markets have been fluctuating heavily amid the rapid fire news relating to Syria.


Gold, dollar and securities investors tremble with fear

The domestic gold price on September 3, when people were back from the September holiday, decreased to VND38.15-38.3 million per tael in accordance with the world’s price downturn to $1,390 per oz.

The gold price had fallen the fourth consecutive day by September 3 as the US delayed the military offensive against Syria.

Prior to that, the domestic price soared again to the VND39 million per tael threshold in accordance with the world’s price hike from $1,300 per oz to $1,400, when the Obama administration planned an offensive against Syria, while the US FED had not set up a detailed plan on cutting the QE program.

With the price fluctuation of $100 per oz, the value of the 500-1,000 tons of gold being held by Vietnamese people has been up and down by $1.6-3.2 billion.

The greenback price in the flea market in Hanoi on September 3 came back to the VND21,200-21,240 per dollar after a period of fluctuation due to the news about the offensive.

A report of the Ministry of Finance showed that Vietnam’s public debts are now worth $70 billion. Meanwhile, some experts estimate that the debts are $130 billion. Therefore, the ups and downs of the dollar would make the burden heavier or lighter.

The stock market on September 3 witnessed the recovery of some stocks, including the blue chips with foreign investors in large quantities in August, such as VNM, BHV and CTG, helped raise the VN Index to 474 points.

Prior to that, the stock prices dropped dramatically as foreign investors rushed to sell stocks on the worries about Syria problems. On August 28, the VN Index dropped by 12.27 points, or 2.53 percent to 473.3 points, the second sharpest reduction in Asia.

The sharp price decreases of the blue chips then made the Vietnamese richest stock millionaires lose trillions of dong. On August 28 alone, the top five stock millionaires lost VND1 trillion.

What will happen?

Financial experts all said it’s very difficult to predict the prices of many kinds of assets. The prices of gold and dollars, in both short term and long term, will depend on many factors, including the US FED’s monetary policy and the situation in the Middle East.

The US has delayed the offensive against Syria. However, the lately statements by the US showed that the fighting would occur, sooner or later. This would lead to the higher demand for gold as the shelter in the war.

However, there are several factors that don’t support the gold price increase. The US still needs the final decision from the Congress, while the UK Parliament has rejected the offensive. These could be the reason behind the sharp falls of the gold prices in the last trading sessions. However, the price still increased by 6.3 percent in August.

What analysts can predict is that the domestic gold price would go up and down in accordance with the world’s prices, but the gap between the domestic and the international prices would not be as big as it was in late 2012 and early 2013.

Manh Ha