Vietnam has been forced to cull over 1.23 million pigs in just 11 months due to ASF, not counting additional losses from floods. As Tet 2026 approaches, concerns are growing over a possible supply shortage and sharp spike in pork prices.

On December 5, Nguyen The Chinh from the Management Board of the Ha Nam livestock wholesale market told VietNamNet that live pig prices are climbing rapidly. Currently, pigs at the market are selling for 59,000–60,000 VND/kg, and just two days ago, prices even spiked to 62,000–63,000 VND/kg.

This represents a jump of 7,000–10,000 VND/kg compared to late October.

"Prices are going up, but the volume of pigs arriving at the market is still around 1,000 per day," Chinh noted, adding that these supplies mainly come from large farming companies, with small-scale household farms largely absent.

Last year, around Tet, the market received up to 2,000 pigs daily. The current figure is only half of that, signaling a significant supply drop that could continue to push prices higher.

Nguyen Cong Bac, CEO of Loc Phat Livestock JSC, confirmed that market supply now primarily comes from large-scale producers. “Most small farmers have run out of pigs to sell,” he said.

ASF and market losses hit production

ASF outbreaks earlier this year, combined with plummeting live pig prices, have driven many farmers into severe losses. This discouraged reinvestment, leading both households and companies to scale back production.

“In October alone, I lost billions of dong selling pigs from my own farms at just 46,000–50,000 VND/kg,” Bac shared.

However, in the past week, prices have rebounded. By December 5, Bac was selling pigs at 62,000–63,000 VND/kg. "Now, traders are buying everything I have. There’s no more difficulty moving inventory like before."

Tet pork prices may reach 70,000 VND/kg

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment’s November report, live pig prices dropped earlier in the month as consumers hesitated due to ASF concerns. But toward the end of November, prices rebounded due to reduced supply from small-scale farms.

Over the past 11 months, Vietnam has culled more than 1.23 million pigs due to ASF.

Looking ahead to Tet 2026, Bac predicts that prices could reach 70,000 VND/kg due to a seasonal spike in consumption and shrinking supplies from small farms.

Nguyen Kim Doan, Vice Chairman of the Dong Nai Livestock Association, also expects prices to climb around Tet, though not excessively. He attributed the upward trend to supply disruptions from central region floods and ASF, and said farmers are buying underweight pigs (under 100 kg) from companies to fatten for resale at 120–140 kg.

Rising demand has triggered supply hoarding, with companies delaying sales to wait for better prices - driving the surge over the past week.

However, Doan does not expect the upward trend to last indefinitely. If prices climb too high, the government is likely to intervene by boosting imports to stabilize the market.

Pork imports surge nearly 96%

When ASF broke out earlier this year, many companies anticipated supply shortages and began ramping up pork imports. In the first 10 months of 2025, Vietnam imported 159,400 tons of fresh, chilled, or frozen pork, valued at nearly USD 358.3 million.

This marked a 95.7% increase in volume and a 90.8% increase in value year-on-year.

The pork market around Tet usually sees two price surges: the first begins about a month before Tet, when food producers stock up for holiday supplies; the second surge comes one week before Tet, when demand for fresh food spikes among consumers.

During these two periods, live pig prices typically rise. For Tet 2026, the price is expected to hit around 70,000 VND/kg, a level considered “balanced” for both producers and consumers.

“Prices are unlikely to soar like they did in 2020,” Doan noted, “because while supply is tight, it is not yet at a crisis level.”

At a December 4 press briefing, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment Phung Duc Tien said the pig herd is recovering. Though pork prices have risen significantly in recent days, the increase remains manageable and should not threaten Tet market stability.

Still, Tien emphasized the need to secure adequate food supplies to help stabilize CPI (Consumer Price Index) in the coming months.

Tam An