This significant milestone has left investors and analysts speculating about the market's outlook in the coming months.

Despite strong selling pressure from foreign investors in the previous session, which saw a net selling of VND 1,900 billion - a record high in the past 18 months - the VN-Index showed resilience. The morning session on June 12 was marked by fluctuations, with the index dropping to 1,280-1,282 points at various times.

Several major stocks, including Vingroup (VIC), Vinhomes (VHM), Vincom Retail (VRE), VPBank (VPB), FPT, and Vinamilk (VNM), experienced heavy selling by foreign investors. However, a positive shift occurred in the afternoon session. Domestic individual and institutional investors increased their buying activity, pulling most pillar stocks upward and spreading gains across the market.

In the final 20 minutes of the continuous order matching session, the VN-Index experienced a vertical increase, led by the VN30 group. The index closed at 1,300.19 points, a 1.23% increase. The HNX-Index and Upcom-Index also saw slight increases. This marked the first time since June 2022 that the VN-Index had surpassed the 1,300-point mark.

Although liquidity decreased compared to the previous session, the total trading volume across all three floors still reached approximately USD 1 billion. The afternoon surge was driven by strong buying power in many pillar stocks such as Hoa Phat Group (HPG), Sacombank (STB), SSI Securities, VPBank (VPB), and SHB Bank (SHB).

Domestic investors drive market growth

The influx of domestic cash into the stock market is attributed to low bank interest rates, limited real estate transactions, and an erratic gold market. Mr. Le Quang Tri, Director of Brokerage at Nhat Viet Securities JSC, highlighted the strong buying power of domestic investors. He noted that VN30 codes have shown solid accumulation recently, with banking stocks bottoming out and beginning to rise.

Despite macroeconomic challenges, such as tensions in the USD/VND exchange rate, the State Bank's effective monetary policy management has provided stability. The recent increase in overnight interest rates to around 4-4.4% per year has helped alleviate exchange rate pressures.

He suggested that with current capital mobilization interest rates at 4-5% per year, cash flow is likely to find its way into stock investment channels. After four weeks of struggle, the stock market has surpassed its March 2024 peak, driven primarily by large stocks.

Outlook for the coming time

According to CSI Securities, the VN-Index's breakthrough and return to the 1,300-point mark is partly due to the resurgence of "king stocks." This new peak in 2024 reflects a widespread cash flow across various industry groups, particularly large-cap and market-sensitive stocks like residential real estate, banking, and securities.

CSI highlighted a slight decrease in liquidity compared to the previous session, but noted that the upward trend of the VN-Index remains dominant. Mr. Luu Chi Khang, Director of the Research Center at Kien Thiet CSI Securities Company, expressed optimism that the VN-Index will conquer the resistance level of 1,317-1,327 points in the near future.

Tri also maintained a positive outlook, predicting an upward trend for the market. While it is challenging to determine precise trends, especially amid global financial uncertainties, many organizations and experts are confident in the Vietnamese stock market's growth potential from now until the end of 2024.

Immediate pressures include exchange rate fluctuations and the possibility of higher US interest rates. However, the US and global economies are nearing the end of the interest rate hike cycle, and a return to monetary easing is anticipated. As the USD stabilizes, cash flow tensions in financial markets worldwide may ease.

Investors are also looking forward to the financial announcement season for the second quarter of 2024, which could bring further positive developments to the market.

Manh Ha