Vietnam earned US$53 billion from the export of agro-forestry-fishery products in 2023, about US$200 million lower than the 2022 figure, but produced a record high export surplus of US$12 billion, up 43.7% year on year, making up 42.5% of the country’s total trade surplus of the whole year.

There were six items with an export turnover of more than US$3 billion each, namely fruit and vegetables, rice, cashew nuts, coffee, shrimp, wood and wooden products. And these products are anticipated to serve as the backbone of the agricultural sector in 2024.

The door is wide open for durians among the prospective products for export in 2024. When China agreed to officially import fresh Vietnamese durians in July 2022, the export turnover of this fruit was forecast to reach more than US$1 billion. But 2023 alone saw Vietnamese businesses ship more than US$2 billion worth of durian exports to the mainland, beyond their expectations

The two sides have completed technical negotiations towards signing a protocol to export frozen durian and fresh coconut to China. If the document is signed in 2024, the export turnover of the fruit will certainly increase sharply.

Rice is another potential product, as the item brought in nearly US$4.8 billion from exports in 2023, up 38.4% year on year.

Over the past year, Vietnamese rice has gained a firm foothold in a number of regional and global markets, such as the European Union, the Philippines, China and Africa, and the product is poised to continue to sell well in these markets in 2024, according to Do Ha Nam, vice president of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA).

“We do not expect the price of 5% broken Vietnamese rice to hit a record high as seen in 2023, because rice is an essential food item for the majority of ordinary consumers. But given the current weather conditions and political landscape, the export price of the 5% broken rice still remains above US$600 per tonne,” analyses Nam.

Like rice, coffee last year fetched nearly US$4.2 billion in exports, an increase of 3.1% compared to the previous year thanks to a high price in the global market. This marks a milestone in the history of Vietnamese coffee export during the past 30 years.

According to experts, the quality of Vietnamese robusta coffee has been improving for the past years and is currently the best in the world. In addition, the demand for this product is increasing both domestically and globally. Moreover, robusta supply is limited as seen in a 20% fall in 2023.

Vietnam is no longer able to expand its coffee growing area, especially when the EU has introduced regulations on deforestation free products. Therefore, coffee output continues to be in short supply, not to mention the extreme dry weather caused by the ongoing El Nino phenomenon.

“The export of coffee has reversed and the world is now dependent on coffee supply from Vietnam,” says Thai Nhu Hiep, vice president of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association.

“Despite a limited supply, the export price of coffee stays high, so we do not worry about a decrease in the export turnover but need to focus on quality and brand building to increase added value. I believe that the coffee export turnover in 2024 is likely to hit the 2023 level or even higher,” elaborates Hiep.

However, experts also warn export businesses need to stay calm in the face of opportunities by evaluating and analyzing the market thoroughly, in order to keep their export activities up and running.

Source: VOV