The Ministry of Transport (MOT) plans to submit to authorities a plan on building a high-speed railway on the North-South route in November before it is submitted to the NA for approval in 2025.

MOT has drawn up two options.

Option 1: Building the North-South railway with double track, the rail gauge of 1,435mm and length of 1,545km, the speed would be 320 kilometers per hour, just for passenger transportation. In addition, improve the existing railways to carry cargo. The total expected investment for this option is about $58.71 billion.

Option 2: Building the new North-South railways, double track, 1,435mm in rail gauge, which will serve both cargo and passenger transportation. The maximum speed for passenger trains would be 180 kilometers per hour, while the maximum speed for cargo trains 120 kilometers per hour. The total expected investment for this option is $64.9 billion.

Nguyen Xuan Thuy, a respected transport expert, said he supports the second option, i.e building a new high-speed railway system which will be able to carry both passengers and cargo.

“I know that many people want to build high-speed railways with the speed of up to 300-400 kilometers per hour. However, it is necessary to analyze factors in a scientific way to make reasonable decisions so as to bring efficiency,” he said.

“Vietnamese people want to have modern railways, but it is necessary to make firm steps forward with consideration for the reality and to ensure the fulfillment of other economic targets,” he explained.

Thuy cited five reasons for developing high-speed railways with the speed of below 250 kilometers per hour.

First, carrying both passengers and cargo is the most effective solution, because the transport cost by car is 2-3 times more expensive than railways. 

Currently, 80-90 percent of cargo is carried by cars from the North to the South, which causes damage to roads and risks of traffic accidents. Carrying cargo with high-speed railways will be very effective.

Second, the speed of below 250 kilometers per hour will make the project ‘fit people’s pockets’. If trains travel at the speed of 300-400 kilometers per hour, train tickets woukd amount to 70-80 percent of airfare. If so, railways won’t be a popular means of transport for many people.

Third, if trains run with the speed of 300-400 kilometers per hour, there will be only one station for every 50 kilometers. If so, the number of passengers will be small. 

Prof La Ngoc Khue estimated that if Vietnam runs a railway with speed of 300-400 kilometers per hour, the railway will run at only 40-50 percent of designed capacity.

Fourth, building the railway with a speed of below 250 kilometers per hour will be within the reach of the Vietnamese capability. Khue said if trains go at this speed, 70 percent of components of trains can be produced, maintained and repaired by Vietnamese workers. 

Meanwhile, to build a railway with the speed of 300-400 kilometers per hour, Vietnam will have to import nearly 100 percent of components.

Fifth, with speed of 300-400 kilometers per hour, Vietnam will need huge investment capital of $70 billion and the investments will be implemented for many years.

Meanwhile, if choosing to develop railways with speed of below 250 kilometers per hour, the execution of the project will be done under the successive construction method, which brings higher efficiency and lower transport costs.

The Vietnamese average income per capita is $4,000, and the figure is expected to increase to $10,000-15,000 by the time the high-speed railways are completed, slated for 2050.

Even some developed countries with average income per capita of $40,000-50,000, including Norway, with $60,000 per capita, don’t have high-speed railways. The US doesn’t have railways with the speed of 300-400 kilometers per hour.

“We should not demand too much beyond the capability of the economy,” Thuy said.

Bui Xuan Phong, former chair of the Vietnam Economics and Railways Transport Association, thinks the new high-speed railway must be designed for trains running at 350 kilometers per hour.

He cited the Law on Railways as affirming that high-speed railways must have speed of 350 kilometers per hour. He said that if only developing passenger trains, the speed must be 350 kilometers per hour, and if carrying both passengers and cargo, the speed of 250 kilometers would be reasonable.

N. Huyen