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However, hot weather is forecast to be more severe than during the same period in 2025.
The information was released by Hoang Duc Cuong, Deputy Director of the national meteorological authority, at a regular press briefing of the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment on February 5.
Hoang Duc Cuong said that, compared with 2025, storm activity this year is expected to be “much milder,” both in terms of frequency and impact on Vietnam’s mainland.
From May to July, the ENSO phenomenon is likely to remain in a neutral state, with a probability of around 55–65%.
The likelihood of a shift toward El Nino is expected to gradually increase to 35–45%, while the chance of a return to La Nina is considered negligible.
From late summer to early autumn, ENSO is forecast to stay neutral but lean toward a warm phase.
It may transition to El Nino in the final months of 2026 or early 2027.
Under this scenario, rainfall across Southeast Asia, including southern Vietnam, is likely to fall below the long-term average toward the end of the year.
Regarding storms and tropical depressions, from February to July their number over the East Sea and their impact on Vietnam are forecast to be close to the long-term average.
This corresponds to about 3.8 systems over the East Sea, including around 1.2 making landfall.
From August to December, storm numbers are expected to be lower than average.
Meteorological authorities, however, caution that strong storms may still occur and require close monitoring.
During August and September, storms and tropical depressions are likely to mainly affect northern Vietnam.
From September to December, their primary impact is expected to shift to central regions and parts of the south.
While storm activity is forecast to decrease, hot weather is expected to intensify.
In southern Vietnam, heat may begin as early as late February or early March in the eastern areas, before spreading westward.
In the Northwest, localized heat may appear from March.
From April, hot weather is expected to emerge in the Thanh Hoa–Hue region and then expand across northern and central Vietnam from late April.
In the North and Central regions, heat intensity is forecast to increase through August, before gradually easing from September.
Overall, heatwaves in 2026 are expected to be more frequent than during the same period in 2025.
Cold air activity in the early months of the year is forecast to be weaker than the long-term average.
Nevertheless, strong cold spells may still occur, particularly in February in the northern mountainous areas.
Light rain and drizzle in northern Vietnam are expected to concentrate in the second half of February and in March.
The nationwide rainy season is generally forecast to be in line with long-term averages.
Saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta during the dry season in early 2026 is expected to be at average levels and lower than in the 2024–2025 dry season, with limited impact on daily life and production.
However, localized drought and water shortages may occur from April to July in several Central Highlands provinces, including Gia Lai, Dak Lak and Lam Dong.
Providing additional information, Deputy Minister Phung Duc Tien stressed that disaster forecasting plays a particularly important role in guiding production and minimizing risks for the agricultural sector.
He noted that recent natural disasters have caused heavy losses, including around 1,500 hectares of aquaculture and more than 3.1 million livestock and poultry.
These figures, he said, underscore the urgency of enhancing forecasting capacity and early warning systems so that people and businesses can proactively adjust production plans.
Vu Diep
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