During a press briefing held on February 3 by the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting and the Department of Hydrometeorology, Deputy Director Hoang Duc Cuong emphasized that climate change is now visibly altering weather patterns not only in Vietnam but around the globe.

In 2025 alone, the country recorded 21 tropical cyclones over the East Sea, including 15 typhoons and six tropical depressions  -  the highest on record since observations began in 1961. For comparison, the previous record was 20 storms in 2017.

Across the country’s river systems, water levels on about 20 rivers surpassed historical flood records, resulting in widespread flooding and severe damage to lives and property.

Looking ahead to 2026, Deputy Director Hoang Phuc Lam noted that while the overall number of storms may decrease, the threat of strong typhoons and increasingly severe heatwaves remains high.

Storms and ENSO trends

The ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) pattern is expected to remain neutral through mid-2026 and may gradually shift toward El Nino in the latter part of the year. This transition is likely to affect Vietnam’s climate significantly.

From February to July 2026, storm and tropical depression activity in the East Sea is projected to remain close to the long-term average (3.8 storms annually, with about 1.2 making landfall in Vietnam).

Between August and December, the number of storms is expected to be lower than average (which typically sees 9.6 storms, with 3.8 making landfall). However, strong typhoons could still occur and require close monitoring.

Heatwaves to intensify

Lam warned that the southern provinces are likely to experience early heatwaves, starting from late February or early March in southeastern regions, before gradually spreading to the southwest.

The northwestern highlands may see isolated heatwaves as early as March. By April, hot weather could begin affecting provinces from Thanh Hoa to Thua Thien Hue, later extending across northern and central Vietnam.

While the southern regions may see a gradual easing of heat from May, the north and central areas are expected to experience more frequent and intense heat through August. By September, conditions should gradually improve.

“Compared to 2025, this year’s heatwaves are expected to be both more frequent and more intense,” Lam warned.

Cold spells and rainfall outlook

The beginning of 2026 may see weaker cold spells than usual. However, periods of severe cold are still expected in northern mountainous areas, particularly in February, with risks of frost and ice.

Light rain and drizzle in northern Vietnam are forecast mainly in the second half of February and through March, roughly in line with long-term patterns.

Meanwhile, the number of widespread heavy rain events nationwide in 2026 is expected to be around or slightly below average. These events will likely begin in June in the north, shift southward, and conclude in the central region around November.

Saltwater intrusion and drought risks

Saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta during the 2026 dry season is projected to be close to the long-term average and lower than the 2024–2025 dry season. While salinity levels may rise from February to April, major impacts on agriculture and livelihoods are not expected.

However, local drought and water shortages could affect provinces outside irrigated areas in Gia Lai, Dak Lak, and Lam Dong from April through July.

As Vietnam heads into another year of climatic uncertainty, authorities and communities are urged to prepare early and remain vigilant, especially for high-impact events such as severe heatwaves and strong storms.

Bao Anh