Strong money injection in 2025

The year 2025 has seen one of the strongest credit expansions in the history of the banking sector. As of November 27, 2025, total outstanding credit in the economy reached more than VND18.2 quadrillion, up 16.56 percent compared to the end of 2024. This figure not only far exceeds the 11.47 percent increase during the same period last year but is also higher than the full-year increase in 2024 (15.09 percent).

This means that the banking system alone injected approximately VND2.6 quadrillion net (equivalent to about $98 billion at the current exchange rate) into the economy in the first 11 months of 2025, the strongest credit growth rate in at least the past 10 years.

At November regular Government press conference on the afternoon of December 6, Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) Pham Thanh Ha emphasized that despite the global economy facing many unpredictable fluctuations from geopolitical tensions, increased protectionism, to climate change, the SBV has conducted monetary policy actively, flexibly, and synchronously. As a result, inflation for 11 months was only 3.29 percent (much lower than the 4.5-5 percent target), core inflation was 3.21 percent, while 9-month GDP growth reached 7.85 percent and is expected to maintain a high momentum until the end of the year.

In practice, banking system liquidity has remained abundant for most of the year, lending rates have been on a downward trend, and the exchange rate has stayed relatively stable. These factors provide a solid foundation for the SBV to boost credit growth without placing excessive pressure on inflation.

Currently, banks are ramping up capital mobilization to serve lending activities to the economy. Public investment also broke through in 2025, with many ministries and localities having disbursed 80-90 percent of their plans.

The SBV has prepared scenarios for 2026, aiming to flexibly manage monetary policy tools, coordinating closely with fiscal policy to maintain low interest rates, ensuring abundant liquidity to support double-digit economic growth in 2026. This means a new round of money injection, potentially as strong as in 2025, is entirely possible in 2026. This is seen as a driving force for the stock market.

$200 billion stock market awaits a historic push

With large volumes of capital continuing to enter the economy, Vietnam’s stock market, with a capitalization exceeding $200 billion, is positioned for explosive growth in 2026.

First, macro fundamentals are favorable. Credit growth is expected to remain high, at 15-20 percent; interest rates stay low; public investment disbursement remains a key driver; and exports and domestic consumption are recovering strongly.

Major private corporations such as Vingroup (VIC), Hoa Phat (HPG), Masan (MSN), VietJet (VJC), Gelex (GEX), Vinhomes (VHM), Techcombank (TCB) and VPBank (VPB) are direct beneficiaries of policies supporting private enterprises and preferential credit. These have been core drivers of the VN-Index’s strong rally from April to October.

Second, the prospects of Vietnam’s stock market being officially upgraded by FTSE to emerging market status in 2026 are increasingly clear. If successful, foreign inflows could reach $2-4 billion within 6-12 months of the upgrade, according to several institutional forecasts, similar to what occurred in Kuwait (2020) and Saudi Arabia (2019). This would significantly boost liquidity and valuations.

However, in the short term, the market may still face adjustment pressure. As of last week (December 6), the VN-Index had risen for four consecutive weeks, closing at 1,741.32 points, just 3 percent below its all-time high. The VN30 group has surged the most, while midcaps and smallcaps remain 10–30 percent below their peaks. Although liquidity has improved, it remains modest at VND26 trillion to VND28 trillion/session, which is not commensurate with the index's growth momentum.

Many securities companies agree that the VN-Index is encountering a strong resistance zone at 1,760–1,770 points, with potential consolidation or volatility in December 2025 and Q1 2026. However, the medium- and long-term trend remains upward, as liquidity and interbank interest rate pressures have been addressed promptly by the SBV (raising the OMO rate to 4.5 percent and conducting USD forward sales).

According to CSI Securities, currently, the VN-Index is approaching the resistance zone around the 1,760 mark and shows signs of increasing selling pressure in this area, unable to break through yet.

A short-term correction after four weeks of gains is possible, with the index retreating to the 1,720-point support zone before resuming its upward trend.

Pinetree Securities notes that the market has already priced in negative news and formed a medium-term bottom at 1,580 points on November 10. From here, the upward trend will continue, sooner or later.

Manh Ha