VietNamNet Bridge – “China strengthening national defense aims at defense. It is very normal, which does not bring harm to neighboring countries or the world,” a Chinese scholar has said.

VietNamNet Bridge would like to introduce several articles written by Hoang Huong during her trip to Hawaii (USA), Beijing and Hainan (China), Masinloc and Manila (the Philippines) and Singapore with journalists from 14 countries in the Asia-Pacific region to discuss the East Sea (South China Sea) conflict, held by the Jefferson Fellowship program of the East-West Center (USA).

The three scholars mentioned in the article are Dr. Mr. Denny Roy, a senior expert on governance and security from the East-West Center (USA), Prof. Sherry P. Broder, a lecturer at the William S. Richardson Law School, University of Hawaii (USA) and Dr. Li Guoqiang, a researcher in the field of philosophy and social sciences from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

US scholar: China will be more aggressive

Satellite image of the reef of Cuarteron taken last November. Photo: CSIS

In late April, the US Department of Defense announced the annual military report. A main part of the report was on China, focusing on two issues: China’s activities in the East Sea (South China Sea) and its increasing investment in the military.

According to the report, in 2014 China announced a 9.3% rise in the defense budget, bringing the total figure to $136 billion. On average, China increased the defense budget by 9.5% per year for the period from 2005 to 2014, mainly in the purchase of foreign weapons, equipment, research and development.

Along the increase in speed and scale of construction in the East Sea and continuous acts of aggression, China has worried the international community. However Mr. Li Guoqiang said: "China strengthening national defense aims at defense. It is very normal, which does not bring harm to the neighboring countries or the world.”

The Chinese scholar argued that so far China "is a country of defensive nature" because of "China’s geographical location and structure and the Chinese traditional culture", leading to the conclusion that "military development of a country is very normal thing, providing that it does not bring harm to neighboring countries or the world."

From the US perspective, Dr. Denny Roy said that China may become militarily more aggressive than it is now. This would affect China’s relationships with its neighbors.  

“China is already highly influential because of its economic power. This matters more than legitimacy. Look, for example, at how quickly countries such as Britain joined the China-sponsored AIIB even though many Britons are in principle opposed to some practices of the Chinese Communist Party,” he said.

Agreeing with Dr. Roy, Prof. Sherry said that China is a leading world country. It has expanded its economic power through access to its markets, capital, and resources and has attracted $2 trillion of foreign direct investment. Its economy ranks first in the world in building modern infrastructure and global exports ($2.2 trillion). Its rate of economic growth in the last 30 years has been phenomenal. By 2025, it is predicted to have the world’s largest gross national product.

According to Prof. Sherry, the US Department of Defense has submitted a “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2015” to the US Congress. It reported that China is engaged in a “long-term, comprehensive military modernization program designed to improve the capacity of its armed forces to fight and win short-duration, high-intensity regional contingencies. "This is very worrying," she said.

Is China building artificial islands for community purposes?

China’s illegal works on the reef of Cuarteron in Vietnam’s Truong Sa Archipelago. Photo: Asahi Shimbun

Chinese scholar Li Guoqiang said: “China does not take action to expand islands". We must see what is the purpose of island construction, whether it is occupation or to serve the community”. He added that "China is not judged in a fair way" because "China has begun implementing a number of development activities of islands since 2002 while in over ten years, other countries have done a lot more than China".

Prof. Sherry said that recently China started a vigorous program of reclamation at five of its outposts in Truong Sa (Spratly Islands). “China has already moved ahead and embarked on infrastructure projects. These reclaimed areas do not provide China with any additional legal rights to claim maritime territory within the South China Sea. However they are very significant because they could provide China with physical locations in the Spratly Islands for harbors, communications and surveillance systems, and probably at least one airfield.”

“China will be able to use them as bases of operation for their paramilitary forces, including fishing vessels, commercial ships and coast guard, as well as its naval fleet and also increase its presence in the disputed area and allow for longer patrols,” she said.

Predictions about developments in the East Sea

Anticipating future developments in the East Sea, the Chinese scholar used the word "explosive depository", while the two American scholars mentioned "rebalancing of power" and "threat of dominance".

Li Guoqiang said that countries in this region, not only China, will continue to strengthen the armed forces. The possibility of large-scale conflict in the East Sea is declining, but the other points of the "explosive depository” could break out.

Prof. Sherry said that President Obama has stated that American foreign policy is committed to a rebalancing towards the Asia Pacific and that a key component of the rebalancing strategy is the strengthening of U.S.-China relations.

“President Obama has traveled again and again to Asia. He has hosted many Asian leaders, including visits and planned visits from Prime Minister Abe of Japan, President Park of Korea, President Jokowi of Indonesia, and President Xi Jinping of China. In 2015, President Obama, who visited the region twice last year, is going or has gone back. The importance of cooperation and agreement to the US is shown by this incredible amount of high-level engagement,” she said.

Dr. Denny Roy said: “I hope for a collective solution but I think it is unlikely.  The main reason is that China has no incentive to compromise.  The trends suggest China will win in the end, so China’s goal is to force the other claimants to give up their losing battle.”

“China is the region’s main trading partner.  It is also, however, a threat to dominate the region. It could be to the advantage of the region if China and the United States peacefully compete for the loyalty of Southeast Asian countries,” he said.

Hoang Huong