Nguyen Thanh Hoa, a forecaster with the Climate Forecasting Department at the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, has provided the latest outlook for weather and climate conditions in September 2026.

El Nino is currently maintaining strong intensity. During the final week of August 2026, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific were around 1.8 degrees Celsius above average.

Hoa said El Nino is expected to remain strong to very strong, with a probability of up to 95% during the final months of 2026, and could persist into the first half of 2027.

2-3 storms expected as heat begins to ease

Around two to three storms and tropical depressions are likely to develop in the East Sea in September 2026, including Storm No. 5, Saudel. Of these, around one or two could directly affect Vietnam’s mainland.

Average temperatures nationwide are expected to be around 0.5-1 degree Celsius above the long-term average.

Regarding heatwaves, Hoa said that apart from the widespread hot spell affecting northern and central Vietnam in the first days of the month, heat is expected to gradually ease in intensity and become less persistent.

However, coastal areas of the south-central region could still experience several widespread heatwaves, affecting daily life and production activities.

Extreme weather warning

As for rainfall, August saw total precipitation across northern Vietnam and the area from Thanh Hoa to Quang Tri generally running 50-100% above average. In September, however, total rainfall in northern Vietnam and from Thanh Hoa to Ha Tinh is forecast to be 20-40% below average.

Meanwhile, rainfall in the Central Highlands is expected to be around 10-20% above average, while southern Vietnam could see a slight deficit of 5-15%.

“Although total rainfall is expected to decline in some regions, people should remain alert to episodes of localized heavy rain occurring over small areas and within short periods,” Hoa said.

The meteorological agency warned that heavy rain is often accompanied by hazardous weather including thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning, hail and strong wind gusts, potentially causing flooding, bringing down trees and damaging homes and transport infrastructure.

Bao Anh