According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, the current typhoon season in the Northwest Pacific is at its most active and severe period.

This morning (September 16), Typhoon Bebinca made landfall in Shanghai (China) with record-breaking winds at level 14, the strongest in the area in 72 years.

In addition, a new typhoon, named Pulasan, is currently active in the Northwest Pacific and is expected to follow a similar path to Typhoon Bebinca in the coming days.

Meanwhile, a tropical depression formed over the eastern maritime area of the Philippines this morning and is forecasted to enter the East Sea, potentially becoming storm number 4.

How will the storm develop?

Mr. Nguyen Van Huong, Head of the Weather Forecasting Department at the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, provided initial insights into the tropical depression, which is likely to strengthen into storm number 4.

At 1:00pm today, the center of the tropical depression was located in the eastern sea area of the Luzon Archipelago (Philippines) with winds at level 6. Over the next 24 hours, it is expected to move westward at a speed of 15-20 km/h.

Mr. Huong highlighted that the position of this tropical depression is similar to where Typhoon Yagi formed, but current environmental conditions are not as favorable as they were for storm number 3.

The tropical depression will be competing for energy and moisture with Typhoon Pulasan, currently active in the Northwest Pacific, which will delay its intensification upon entering the East Sea.

Additionally, the depression will interact with a large-scale steering flow from the subtropical high, which is currently unstable. Moreover, an incoming cold air mass around September 19 may also affect the storm’s development.

"Given the current atmospheric conditions, the path of the tropical depression, which will likely become storm number 4, is expected to be more complex than Typhoon Yagi," Mr. Huong emphasized.

Potential impact scenarios

Mr. Huong explained that by September 17, as the tropical depression moves into the East Sea, it is expected to gradually strengthen, likely becoming a typhoon by September 18. As it moves toward the central East Sea, near the Paracel Islands, two potential scenarios could unfold:

1. The tropical depression could strengthen into a typhoon and head directly towards Central Vietnam.

2. Alternatively, the storm could change direction, moving west-northwest and affecting the Northern and North Central regions.

“All forecast models, both Vietnamese and international, predict that the intensity of the tropical depression, once it becomes a typhoon, will not be as strong as Typhoon Yagi,” Mr. Huong said.

While the tropical depression is expected to intensify into storm number 4, its path and impact on land remain uncertain. Strong winds and high waves at sea are anticipated, but the impact on mainland Vietnam will depend on how the storm evolves upon entering the East Sea.

Weather warnings for September 17 and 18

For the northern East Sea, including the Paracel Islands, and the northern part of the central East Sea, strong winds of level 6-7 are expected, with winds near the storm center reaching level 8 and gusts of level 10. The sea will be rough, with waves reaching heights of 3-5 meters.

In the sea areas from Ninh Thuan to Ca Mau, the southern part of the central East Sea, and the southern East Sea (including the Spratly Islands), southwest winds will be level 6, occasionally reaching level 7, with gusts up to level 8-9. The sea will be rough, with waves from 3-5 meters high.

In the sea areas from Ca Mau to Kien Giang and the Gulf of Thailand, southwest winds of level 5, occasionally reaching level 6, with gusts of level 7-8 are expected, along with rough seas and waves from 2-3 meters high.

Bao Anh