Le Thanh Hai, deputy director of the National Centre for Hydro-Meteorologial Forecastings under the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, talks to the newspaper Young People about the abnormal weather that is likely to occur in Việt Nam in 2018.

Mr. Le Thanh Hai

Why will the temperature in the northern and central regions become hotter this year than in the past?

I should say that the temperatures last January and February occurred because the El Nino Southern Oscillation already switched to the La Nina phenomena (the cold weather). As a result, in March and April, the temperature in Việt Nam is expected not to be as cold as what had happed in the past. According to the weather forecast by the middle of this year the ENSO phenomena will become the El Nino Southern Oscillation.

In the 2017 summer season, Việt Nam was hit by 15 hot spells on a large scale. In early June, all central and northern provinces in from Thanh Hóa to Phú Yên were hit by a strong heat wave. In some localities, the temperature was recorded up 41-42 degree centigrade. Even in Hà Nội, 41.5 degree C was recorded.

High temperatures have already been recorded in some localities but we don’t think that the temperature this summer will be as hot as in the previous year.

Annually, northern and central provinces are often hit by about 12 hot spells. This year, it is forecast that fewer hot drives will occur, and they will only last for a few days. However, it is likely that a hot spelt which is as severe as that of 2017 will hit Việt Nam.

In the early months of 2018, a storm and low tropical pressure was reported to appear in the East Sea. This was very abnormal weather pattern compared to the previous years. Don’t you think it is a sign of abnormal weather for this year?

Right in the first month of 2018, Việt Nam was hit by the first storm. Then in February  Việt Nam was again hit by a low atmospheric weather system. These are the signs indicating that the 2018 stormy season in the East Seas had hit the country much earlier than those of the previous years.

In 2017, Việt Nam was hit by 20 storms and low atmospheric pressure systems.

Weather forecasting in the East Sea is a big challenge for us. According to our experiences, in whatever year when the El Nino Southern Oscillation becomes neutral, the number of storms and low atmospheric pressures occurred in the sea will average around 11-13.

According to our experiences, about half of them will hit Việt Nam. However, the storms’ strength will be much stronger and they tend to land on southern provinces.

In 2017, during the monsoon season, northern and southern regions were seriously hit by several big floods and land slides. It is forecast that in 2018, big floods and severe land slides are as likely to occur as in the previous year.

Do you think that provinces in the Central Highlands and South will again be hit by drought and salinity intrusion as in the last two years?

In the Central Highlands and the Southern Provinces, March is the dry season. But it is likely that that this year monsoon season may come in the second half of April. It is forecast that the rainfall in April and May this year will be 15-30 percent higher than that of the mean average of many years in the past.

This year, from June to August, it is forecast, the volume of rainfall will be almost the same as the average for that time period in previous years.

As the monsoon season this year comes a bit earlier than the previous years, coupled with heavy rains, the Central Highlands and Southern Provinces will not be hit by either drought or salt water intrusion as in the previous two years of 2016 and 2017. However, droughts might occur in some localities in Ninh Thuận, Đắc Lắk and Đắk Nông provinces. — VNS