The Ministry of Construction (MOC) has proposed setting a maximum loan ratio of 50 percent for second homes and 30 percent for third homes in a draft resolution on mechanisms to curb real estate prices, which has sparked widespread discussion.

Vu Kim Giang, chair of SGO Group, warned that if the proposal is approved, it will impact market liquidity. He explained that the real estate market operates based on two main sources of demand: buying to live and buying for investment (renting or asset accumulation). Tightening credit for home purchases will directly affect the investment group.

“Borrowers may also face difficulties when having ownership status verified (first home, second home, etc…). Previously, verifying conditions to buy social housing encountered many complications,” Giang noted.

He believes that lowering real estate prices requires a comprehensive, long-term strategy with synchronized solutions. The focus should be on developing housing segments that meet real residential demand, while housing for investment purposes should be left to operate under market principles.

“Restricting loans for second or third home purchases, if implemented, could cause a sudden shock. It’s uncertain whether prices will fall, but investment capital flow into real estate will certainly decline, which could strain the market,” Giang warned.

Meanwhile, economist Nguyen Quang Huy from Nguyen Trai University emphasized that any policy directly affecting the housing market, which concerns millions of people and businesses, must be approached cautiously, with public consultation and phased testing.

“If implemented nationwide without testing, unintended consequences may arise, such as reduced liquidity, buyer hesitation, and even a negative impact on people’s homeownership aspirations,” Huy said.

To ensure feasibility and fairness, he suggested collecting feedback from the public before setting any policy that may directly affect people, especially from those buying homes to live in, to upgrade their living conditions, or to purchase for their children - the groups of buyers most vulnerable to credit restrictions.

In addition, it is necessary to consult with commercial banks, real estate businesses, and economic experts to form a comprehensive view of the impact on supply, demand, finance, and social investment.

“A pilot rollout could start on a small scale, targeting areas showing signs of speculation or abnormal price increases. A full impact assessment should be conducted before nationwide expansion. For the proposal to restrict loans for second homes and beyond, the key is not to tighten quickly but to tighten properly, with a roadmap, impact assessment, and social consensus,” he stressed.

Addressing the real cause of housing prices

According to Nguyen Quang Huy, while credit control is an important tool, the fundamental issue behind housing prices lies in the supply-demand imbalance.

To ensure sustainable market development, he proposed focusing on three pillars: significantly increasing the supply of social housing and reasonably priced commercial housing to serve real residential demand; accelerating the development of satellite urban areas with strong transport links to city centers; and reforming administrative procedures to shorten project approval times, helping businesses cut costs and offer more affordable products.

If implemented simultaneously, these solutions would reduce speculative demand and allow the market to operate according to actual supply-demand dynamics, rather than relying solely on short-term administrative measures.

Lawyer Nguyen Thanh Ha, chair of SBLaw, argued that the proposal to restrict loans for second and third homes is inconsistent with the Law on Credit Institutions and current regulations. According to Ha, credit institutions have the right to provide loans to projects that meet requirements and offer collateral.

He also pointed out that the main reason for high housing prices is limited supply. In major cities, affordable commercial housing and social housing remain scarce. Many projects face legal bottlenecks that need to be resolved promptly to increase supply.

“Land prices in many projects are excessively high, pushing up input costs. Meanwhile, many projects have been inactive for years despite having no legal issues. In such cases, the government should consider revoking land rights from developers who fail to implement on schedule and reassign them to capable parties,” Ha said.

In addition, he called for accelerating the social housing program aimed at building 1 million units, and developing a plan for reasonably priced commercial housing by removing legal obstacles and increasing supply. Once supply improves, prices will begin to stabilize.

Hong Khanh