According to the Ministry of Health (MOH), one of the greatest challenges for a nation is the rapid aging population and sharp birth rate decrease. The birth rates of Asian women are among the lowest in the world. They tend to have fewer babies or have none because they don’t have enough money to raise a child.

Her first daughter is 8 years old now, but Quynh, 32, an office worker, doesn’t want to have a second baby. She said with her current conditions, living in a rent room in the last 10 years and having unstable incomes, having more babies is not seen as a good idea.

The latest report released by the HCM City Sub-department of Population showed that the city’s women now have ab average of 1.32 children, lower than the 1.42 last year.

In the last 20 years, the birth rate in HCM City has been hovering around 1.24-1.7 per female, much lower than the replacement birth rate (2-2.1). 

Vietnam maintained the replacement fertility rate over the last 15 years (since 2006, Vietnam has officially had the replacement fertility rate of 2.09 children). In 2023, Vietnam for the first time witnessed the lowest fertility rate since it launched the population program (1960). The fertility rate has dropped sharply to below two children.

According to the General Statistics Office (GSO), Vietnam’s average population in 2023 reached 100.3 million, an increase of 835,000 people, or 0.84 percent, compared with 2022. Within 10 years, from 2013 to 2023, the Vietnamese population increased by 1 million people each year.

The statistics show a sharp fall in fertility rates, while MOH warned that the downward trend will be seen in the years to come.

The ministry has also reported a big difference in fertility rates in different localities. The areas with socio-economic difficulties are the localities with high fertility rates, over 2.5. Meanwhile, the trend of having few babies or none is getting clearer.

MOH, in its report on assessing the impact of the Law on Population, showed that the fertility rate has decreased sharply compared with replacement fertility rate, which can be seen most clearly in the eastern part of the southern region, Mekong Delta and some central coastal provinces. Twenty one cities and provinces have lower birth rates and they account for 40 percent of the total population in the country.

Le Thanh Dung, director of the MOH’s Department of Population, said the continued low fertility rate has been and will cause serious consequences, including a rapidly aging population, lack of laborers and effects on social welfare.

With the worst scenario, Vietnam would face a minus (-) 0.04 percent population growth rate by 2059. Meanwhile, with the baseline scenario, the population growth would reach zero 10 years later, by 2069.

“The fertility rate decrease will seriously affect the population with the proportion of under-15 children decreasing and the proportion of old people increasing. Vietnam is the country with the fastest aging population in the world,” Dung said.

What to do?

The 2008 Ordinance on Population, which amended Article No 10 of the 2003 ordinance, stipulates that couples and individuals “determine the time they have babies and the birth spacing” and “have one or two children, except special cases”.

Based on the ordinance, the government stipulates seven cases which don’t violate regulations on having one or two babies. However, MOH affirmed that the regulation in the Ordinance on Population is no longer suited to the 2013 Constitution.

The draft law on population which is being compiled by MOH will look stipulate the number of children each couple can have. Each individual and couple will decide how many children they will have after considering their financial and health conditions.

The compilation agency believes that by allowing couples to decide the number of children they have, Vietnam will be able to prevent the fertility rate from dropping two sharply which may have negative impacts on socio-economic development.

Linh Trang