In a recent report, the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS) assessed that the real estate market is showing signs of unsustainable growth, particularly due to the imbalance between housing supply and actual affordability.

According to VARS, over the past three years, housing supply has increased significantly, yet the structure remains skewed. Most new projects focus on the high-end segment targeting investors or speculators, rather than meeting real housing demand.

Even in suburban areas, once expected to provide affordable homes, selling prices remain much higher than average incomes, only slightly lower than those in city centers.

Meanwhile, the demand is strongest for affordable housing. This mismatch not only pushes overall housing prices upward but also increases the risk of a price bubble.

VARS noted that assuming prices and incomes stay unchanged, housing accessibility for ordinary citizens is sharply declining. Surveys in major cities show that mid-range projects now average VND5 billion for a two-bedroom apartment. Even individuals earning a high urban income of VND50 million per month would need at least eight years of total savings to afford one.

If following the rule that housing costs should not exceed one third of income, the required saving period would extend to roughly 25 years.

For low-income groups, the situation is even more concerning. Social housing, designed to support low-income earners, is no longer “cheap.”

With a selling price of around VND1.5 billion for a 60 sqm apartment, even families earning the maximum qualifying income of VND40 million per month would need to save for around 10 years to afford it. If they have to borrow money to buy it, the saving time would be even longer.

Housing prices have risen much faster than incomes, pushing home ownership further out of reach for most citizens. Those who already own property continue to benefit from appreciating real estate values. Wealthier groups with stronger financial capacity keep accumulating properties as an investment channel, thereby "getting richer" thanks to land value increase.

By contrast, groups without housing must accept long-term rental, despite efforts to increase income. Feeling of "getting poorer" appears even when economy grows, because housing costs increase faster than income.

“If timely solutions are not implemented, the rich-poor gap will not only widen but also risk being 'frozen' across generations, becoming a major challenge to social welfare goals, urbanization strategy and national sustainable growth,” VARS warned.

More affordable housing needed

To ensure sustainable real estate growth and prevent the sector from becoming an economic risk, VARS proposed a set of systemic solutions to “cool down” rapid housing price increases.

The most crucial measure, according to the association, is to unlock the supply of affordable housing. Once supply meets demand, the market can naturally self-correct.

VARS also suggested establishing early warning indicators for real estate trends to help regulators detect abnormal patterns such as speculation, unusual price surges, supply-demand imbalances, or liquidity risks, thus allowing proactive intervention before widespread instability occurs.

In addition, building a unified national database on land, housing, and real estate transactions is considered urgent to improve management, limit price manipulation and speculation, and protect the legitimate interests of both citizens and businesses.

According to Le Thanh Dung, Director General of the Department of Population under the Ministry of Health — the agency drafting the Population Law — one notable provision in the draft is the policy prioritizing social housing purchases for families with two children. Men with two biological children whose wives have passed away would be eligible for social housing purchase priority.

According to MOC, housing prices in major cities like Hanoi and HCMC remain high. In Q3 2025, new projects averaged VND78 million per sqm, with over 30 percent priced above VND100 million per sqm.

In Hanoi, primary apartment prices surged to an average of VND95 million per sqm, with over 43 percent of new units priced above VND120 million per sqm.

HCMC also witnessed a similar trend, with an average primary price of VND91 million per sqm and many central projects ranging from VND120–150 million per sqm.

In response, the Ministry of Construction stated it is developing mechanisms and policies to control and stabilize real estate prices, following directives from the Prime Minister.

With a price of VND1.5 billion for a 60 sqm social housing apartment, even households with the highest income level as stipulated in the list of subjects to social housing would need to save for 10 years to afford a home.

Hong Khanh