From a major profit target to a steep projected loss

At its annual general meeting in April 2026, shareholders of Phu Nhuan Jewelry Joint Stock Company (PNJ) approved a revenue target of more than VND48.66 trillion ($1.86 billion) and an after-tax profit target of nearly VND3.409 trillion ($130.3 million).

About five months later, the picture looks entirely different.

Under a proposal expected to go before an extraordinary general meeting on October 21, PNJ estimates 2026 revenue at VND39.057 trillion ($1.49 billion), up about 10% from 2025. However, it expects to set aside VND7.071 trillion ($270.2 million) in provisions for its buyback and exchange policy, resulting in a projected pretax loss of VND6.059 trillion ($231.5 million) and an after-tax loss of VND6.271 trillion ($239.6 million).

According to the calculations PNJ is presenting to shareholders, projected after-tax profit would be about VND800 billion ($30.6 million) without this provision.

The projected VND6.271 trillion loss is equivalent to roughly 46.6% of PNJ’s VND13.456 trillion ($514.2 million) in equity at the end of June 2026. However, this is an estimated accounting loss that includes provisions for losses; it does not mean the full amount will immediately reduce the company’s cash holdings.

Alongside the deterioration in its earnings outlook, PNJ’s share price has plunged. From about VND83,000 ($3.17) in early March, the stock closed at VND33,000 ($1.26) on September 25, a decline of more than 60%, leaving it near its lowest levels since late 2020.

Provisions for the buyback and exchange policy are the main reason the company’s 2026 profit plan has turned into a projected loss. According to PNJ, buybacks carried out between July 1 and September 3 totaled nearly VND4.997 trillion ($190.9 million), with corresponding losses of more than VND1.446 trillion ($55.3 million). Across the policy as a whole, PNJ recorded total loss provisions of approximately VND2.267 trillion ($86.6 million).

The reversal comes as PNJ rebuilds following the shock of a case involving former executives of PNJ’s gem-testing company, P-Lab, and a diamond-smuggling ring.

Trust has emerged as a major concern. PNJ said diamonds in its current inventory were randomly sampled and sealed by Vinacontrol, then sent to the Asian Institute of Gemological Sciences (AIGS) for independent testing. The results showed that all tested samples were natural diamonds and matched the 4C specifications disclosed by PNJ.

Nevertheless, PNJ said restoring customer and market confidence would require a comprehensive rebuilding process spanning finance, corporate governance, risk controls and business operations.

The company plans to raise up to approximately VND8 trillion ($305.7 million) through various channels to support that effort. Specific proposals will be submitted to the extraordinary general meeting for consideration.

The challenge of restoring trust

The current crisis has not erased the business foundations PNJ has built over many years.

By mid-2026, PNJ had approximately 430 stores nationwide and more than 8,200 employees. It also had over 1,300 goldsmiths and artisans, annual designed production capacity of about 5 million items, and a relatively comprehensive business ecosystem covering design, manufacturing, wholesale and retail.

Research reports from several securities firms describe PNJ as a leader in Vietnam’s branded jewelry retail segment. This is an important advantage in a market that remains fragmented, with room for branded jewelry to account for a larger share of consumption.

But the biggest challenge now extends beyond opening more stores or increasing revenue. It is restoring trust.

Following a financial review, PNJ’s consolidated after-tax profit for the first half of 2026 stood at VND728.5 billion ($27.8 million), down about 35% from a year earlier and significantly below the more than VND1.184 trillion ($45.2 million) previously reported.

Another notable development has been share transactions involving relatives of PNJ chairwoman Cao Thi Ngoc Dung.

Dung’s two daughters announced that they had sold a combined 25 million PNJ shares. Tran Phuong Ngoc Ha sold 18 million shares, while Tran Phuong Ngoc Thao sold 7 million. Following the transactions, the chairwoman’s family group held approximately 5.16% of PNJ.

Dung’s younger brother, Cao Ngoc Duy, has also registered to sell 9 million shares between October 1 and 30. If he sells the entire registered amount, his stake is expected to fall from about 2.7% to 0.94%.

The transactions come as PNJ works to rebuild its business following a steep decline in its share price. Earlier, PNJ and the chairwoman’s family also reached an agreement on a loan to supplement working capital, with the maximum total facility under the cited regulations stated at approximately 5% of PNJ’s total assets.

Beyond the substantial challenge of rebuilding trust, PNJ faces pressure from high gold prices that could dampen jewelry demand, potential raw-material shortages that could affect production and profit margins, and weak purchasing power in the domestic market.

Over the longer term, PNJ retains considerable strengths. Within Vietnam, it has a superior retail network and also compares favorably with industry peers in profitability. The company posted after-tax profit of VND1.971 trillion ($75.3 million) in 2023.

On a global scale, however, PNJ remains relatively small. Its 2025 revenue was approximately VND35.41 trillion, equivalent to $1.3 billion–$1.4 billion. Denmark’s Pandora, by comparison, generated about $4.4 billion in revenue in 2025 and had more than 7,000 points of sale in over 100 countries. Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group reported revenue of approximately $12 billion for its 2026 fiscal year, several times PNJ’s revenue.

PNJ’s recovery will depend on how it handles its losses, strengthens its finances and, most importantly, restores the confidence of customers, shareholders and the market. Its network of hundreds of stores, factories, skilled goldsmiths and a brand built over many years remain important foundations for that rebuilding effort.

Despite PNJ’s prominent position in Vietnam, the shock of 2026 has left it facing a challenge far more difficult than ordinary business growth.

Manh Ha