On June 11, global gold prices fell close to $4,000 per ounce. Domestically, SJC gold bars traded at VND133.4–138.4 million per tael (buying - selling), while Bao Tin Minh Chau gold rings stood at VND133.7–138.7 million per tael. Compared to last week, gold suffered a massive drop.

Dr. Le Ba Chi Nhan, an economic expert, sais the sharp decline in gold prices during the June 11 session was a result of both international and domestic factors, reflecting a shift in investor expectations regarding safe-haven assets.

He said that market sentiment has moved from a defensive stance to a greater willingness to take risks. Positive signals from trade negotiations among major economies and expectations that US inflation will remain under control have reduced demand for gold as a hedge against uncertainty.

As capital flows back into stocks, bonds, and other yield-generating assets, gold typically faces downward pressure. In addition, the US dollar has shown signs of stabilizing, while US Treasury yields remain relatively attractive. Both factors tend to weigh on gold prices.

“Global investors are waiting for clearer signals from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) regarding monetary policy, causing short-term gold speculation to decline significantly,” Nhan said.

Domestically, the decline has been amplified by technical and psychological factors. After a prolonged rally, SJC gold bars and gold rings had reached exceptionally high price levels, far outpacing many other types of asset. When global prices corrected, profit-taking by investors who bought at lower levels has intensified, creating continuous downward pressure.

Another notable factor is that the gap between domestic and international gold prices has narrowed considerably. This suggests the local market is increasingly reflecting global signals. As the price gap narrows, the potential for domestic gold prices to surge independently weakens.

According to Nhan, the current correction is primarily a healthy adjustment following an extended rally rather than a sign of a long-term trend reversal.

“However, in the short term, gold prices may remain under pressure if the global economy becomes more stable, the Fed delays interest-rate cuts, and demand for safe-haven assets weakens. Investors should be particularly cautious about bottom-fishing while the market is still searching for a new equilibrium,” he warned.

Could gold fall to VND120 million per tael?

Gold expert Tran Duy Phuong said domestic gold prices depend heavily on developments in the global market, which directly influence the sentiment of gold holders.

Meanwhile, the outlook for global gold prices is not particularly positive, as they have already fallen about 30 percent from their peak.

For SJC gold bars and gold rings in Vietnam to drop to around VND120 million per tael, global gold prices would likely need to retreat to about $3,800 per ounce. 

However, Phuong believes this scenario is unlikely because global prices have already experienced a substantial decline this year, from a peak of roughly $5,600 per ounce to around $4,000 per ounce.

“Gold prices may only fall to around $3,900 per ounce. If such a decline occurs, it will likely be brief before prices rebound. It would be difficult for gold to remain at low levels for an extended period,” Phuong told VietNamNet.

According to the expert, geopolitical instability and rising public debt remain key long-term support factors for gold prices. The recent sharp decline has been driven mainly by inflation concerns, which have increased the likelihood that central banks could return to tightening monetary policy.

When interest rates rise, capital tends to move away from gold toward higher-yielding assets and government bonds, reducing the appeal of holding gold.

However, Phuong believes most of these concerns have already been priced into the market after the recent corrections. Therefore, he does not expect another sharp decline in the near term.

In addition, investors who previously sold gold at higher prices may return to the market when prices become more attractive, increasing bargain-hunting demand.

As for SJC gold bars, limited supply makes a deep decline less likely. Market observations show that buying interest strengthens significantly whenever SJC prices fall into the VND135-136 million-per-tael range.

“If global gold holds above $3,900 per ounce, domestic gold prices could decline to around VND125 million per tael. But falling to VND120 million per tael would be very difficult,” he said.

Manh Ha