At the opening of the Asian trading session on the morning of December 15, spot gold rose by $22 (+0.5 percent) to $4,323 per ounce, equivalent to about VND138.3 million per tael based on bank exchange rates.

Compared with the level of $2,625 per ounce at the beginning of the year, gold prices have risen 64.7 percent, the most impressive increase since 1979, second only to silver’s 115 percent gain.

Gold prices surged in 2025 due to many factors, including a weakening USD, rising demand for gold reserves from countries, gold ETFs, major financial institutions, and individual investors amid global uncertainty.

Geopolitical tensions escalated and persisted in many regions, from the Middle East to Ukraine, as well as newly heating areas such as Northeast Asia and Latin America. Rising public debt in many countries, prolonged high inflation, and continued loose fiscal policies in many economies also pushed gold prices higher, setting new records tens of times in 2025.

In Vietnam, gold prices also rose sharply in line with global trends and experienced several feverish periods, such as in October. SJC gold bars increased from about VND84 million per tael (selling price) at the beginning of the year to VND156.8 million per tael as on December 15, nearly doubling. Gold rings recorded a similar increase.

Despite strong gains and persistent uncertainty, many experts forecast that gold prices will no longer rise sharply in 2026.

In 2026 outlook report, Rajat Bhattacharya, senior investment strategist at Standard Chartered, sar that the gold price is heading towards a year with superior gains over both stocks and bonds and has outperformed bonds for 10 consecutive years.

The expert predicted that next year gold prices would not surge sharply, with an average level of $4,500 per ounce over the next 12 months.

In 2026, gold may reach $5,000 per ounce at some moments, and even exceed that level at times. Many institutions such as Bank of America, Societe Generale, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, ANZ, Standard Chartered, and UBS forecast gold prices would reach or approach this mark.

Gold may reach $5,000 per ounce (VND160 million per tael). However, that increase only corresponds to 16 percent, significantly slower than this year's price surge and the 27 percent increase recorded in 2024.

On Kitco News, Carsten Fritsch, Commodity Analyst at Commerzbank, noted that the gold price has doubled since February 2024. He assessed that the current pace of gold price appreciation is unsustainable. Commerzbank forecasts the gold price to increase to $4,400/ounce in 2026.

Chantelle Schieven from Capitalight Research is optimistic about the gold price until 2026 but notes that questioning the trajectory and momentum is essential.

Accordingly, gold has had two really good years and may be in bubble territory, but that doesn't mean it will burst next year. 

The world continues to see a strong shift in the global financial market to support higher gold prices in the long term. Therefore, the gold price reaching $5,000/ounce in 2026 is entirely possible.

Aakash Doshi, Chief Gold Strategist at State Street Investment Management, forecasts the gold price will continue to increase by 25 percent in 2026.

A key reason why most analysts remain bullish on gold is that the global market is not expected to change much.

In fact, gold prices have increased sharply over the past few years mainly due to strong demand. Over the past three years, more than 3,000 tonnes of gold have been added to official global reserves. The actual number may be higher. 

According to a report by El Pais, China's off-the-books gold purchases in 2025 might be 10 times higher than the officially announced figure of 25 tons, and the Asian "giant's" actual reserves are second only to the US.

Though official data is not yet finalized, analysts at the World Gold Council predict that central bank gold reserves will increase from 750 to 900 tons this year.

According to Bank of America, gold currently accounts for an average of about 15 percent of central banks' total reserves. However, Widmer's model suggests that reserves will be fully optimized with an average gold allocation of nearly 30 percent.

Manh Ha