They all agree that it will take two to three months to recover domestic travel, but
six months or several years to recover inbound and outbound tours.

Pham Van Bay, deputy director of Vietravel Hanoi Branch, said that Northeast Asia (China, South Korea and Japan) are the key markets which provide 60-70 percent of foreign travelers to Vietnam.

If considering the current situation in China, the possibility of recovering the market in winter-spring (from November to March) is low.

Meanwhile, the South Korean, Japanese and Taiwanese markets are expected to recover by the end of the year. Southeast Asian markets are expected to recover sooner by 50 percent if aviation services are ready and the epidemic in the region can be controlled well.

As for European markets, it is expected that European travelers will return in February and March of next year.

Travel firms and experts believe that the tourism sector will not bounce back after the epidemic, but will recover step by step.

Regarding the American market, Vietnam’s travel firms mostly target Viet Kieu (overseas Vietnamese) and people who come to Vietnam on business.

In general, experts think the number of foreign travelers may begin recovering in autumn-winter, but at a moderate rate. It is expected that tourism would need five more years to recover completely as seen in 2018-2019.

Domestic travel is believed to be the market segment with the fastest growth rate. Travelers are expected to come back in August and September.

Travelers will not go in large groups, but in small groups of families and friends. This is an opportunity for sea tourism and accommodation facilities to advertise their products and stimulate demand.

Meanwhile, outbound travelers will mostly choose short-term tours to neighboring countries.

Bay believes that the tourism sector will see a U-shaped recovery, and will recover step by step.

Sharing the same view, Nguyen Tien Dat, CEO of AZA Travel, also thinks that the tourism sector will recover gradually.

One should not expect to see a V-shaped recovery, i. e., the industry bouncing back after bottoming out because people are still hesitating to go to crowded places such as airports and tourism sites.

In addition, businesses negatively impacted from Covid-19 will cut their budgets for travel.

Dat said domestic travel would be the first segment to see recovery. Inbound and outbound tourism will recover later because the epidemic continues in many countries. People will begin traveling again only three months after the epidemic ends, and it will take two years to return to normal.

Thanh Lich

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