Regulatory agencies, international organizations, and enterprises have envisioned a VIFC (HCMC Vietnam International Financial Center) where a green capital market and carbon credit exchange can become its pillars.

Pham Binh An, Deputy Director of the HCMC Institute for Development Studies, said that to reach the target of "zero" net emissions by 2050, for energy transition alone, Vietnam needs about $135 billion by 2030. 

By 2040, capital demand is estimated at $368 billion, equivalent to 6.8 percent of GDP per year, and by 2050, the figure could fluctuate between $364 and $511 billion.

However, according to estimates by the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the capital need is even bigger. Specifically, the climate investment potential in Vietnam for the 2016-2030 period reaches $753 billion. Thus, public resources are insufficient. Large-scale private capital, both domestic and international, will be a prerequisite.

The issue is not just "having green projects," but having the financial infrastructure that meets international standards to attract those capital flows. 

According to the HCMC Institute for Development Studies, VIFC is oriented to develop into a diverse financial ecosystem, including green financial services, with preferential and flexible institutional mechanisms under Government Decree 324/2025/ND-CP.

A sandbox mechanism for innovation has been proposed, allowing the testing of new green financial technologies and products not yet regulated by current laws. This can clear the way for models of green bond tokenization, renewable energy assets, and especially a carbon credit exchange utilizing blockchain.

The vision is described quite clearly: according to An, VIFC is expected to be a "machine" pumping capital for green growth, attracting foreign capital flows, and creating an effective mobilization channel for Vietnamese green enterprises and projects.

Carbon credit exchange

A representative of the ASEAN Carbon Credit Exchange JSC (CCTPA) proposed building a carbon credit exchange at VIFC. 

The exchange aims to provide a flexible carbon credit trading and investment ecosystem, allowing for fast, transparent, and secure transactions; and supporting buying, selling, investing, exchanging, and internal offsetting. 

The platform would apply blockchain technology, carbon credit tokenization, and distributed ledgers to ensure immutable data, preventing fraud and "double-selling."

The trading model is designed with multiple layers such as spot trading, direct negotiation trading, auctions or price setting according to market demand, supporting OTC transactions. 

Notably, the company proposed that the exchange also feature a trading mechanism for International Renewable Energy Certificates (I-REC) to serve the needs of enterprises using and retiring renewable energy certificates.

CCTPA noted that as Vietnam officially enters the pilot Emissions Trading System (ETS) phase for 2025–2029, moving toward a national carbon exchange by 2028, placing a carbon exchange within VIFC could create an advantage as both compliance and voluntary markets expand.

According to the State Bank of Vietnam, as of September 2024, 50 credit institutions had outstanding green loans totaling nearly VND680 trillion, accounting for approximately 4.35 percent of total outstanding loans in the economy, mainly concentrated in renewable energy (45 percent) and green agriculture (30 percent).

During 2017–2022, green credit outstanding grew at an average rate of nearly 23 percent per year, higher than overall credit growth (15 percent). However, the scale of green and sustainable bond issuance remains modest. Total sustainable issuance during 2021–2023 was only $0.8 billion. 

Nguyen Van Nam from FiinGroup pointed out that challenges remain as green bond issuance costs are high, long-term capital is limited, hedging and derivatives markets are underdeveloped, and power transmission infrastructure is still weak.

Regional competitive advantage 

The question is: where will VIFC position itself in the regional green finance value chain? Will VIFC just be a destination for capital or a place for price formation, where products are standardized and carbon capital is led for ASEAN?

The ambition is clear. The policy architecture is also taking shape. But the HCMC Institute for Development Studies believes that for an international financial center to truly become a "machine" for green growth, the prerequisite remains market trust. This includes a transparent legal framework, international-standard dispute resolution mechanisms, reliable data, and independent ESG assessment and monitoring capacity.

If successful, HCMC will not only solve its own problem for Net Zero but can also become a carbon financial "hub" for the region, where carbon credits, green bonds, asset tokenization, and green supply chain financing converge in an integrated financial infrastructure.

Tam An