At the forum “Outlook for the Real Estate Market in 2026 – Drivers for a New Growth Cycle” organized by Xay Dung Newspaper on January 8 in HCMC, experts and leaders from the Ministry of Construction shared assessments of the real estate market’s developments for this year.

Nguyen Van Sinh, Deputy Minister of Construction, sais there are 1,114 commercial housing and urban area projects nationwide under implementation, supplying around 529,000 units. In addition, 679 social housing projects are underway, with a scale of approximately 657,000 units.

In terms of transactions, the market recorded about 580,000 housing transactions in 2025. Out of a total of 2,991 projects facing legal procedural obstacles, 926 projects have so far had their issues resolved.

“2025 was a year that laid an important foundation for the real estate market to enter 2026 with a new growth cycle,” the Deputy Minister noted. “However, there are still limitations such as a shortage of affordable housing; housing prices remain high compared to the income of the majority of people; and a lack of synchronization exists in the housing data and information system.”

The Mnistry of Construction said it will continue to improve regulations, promote the reasonably-priced commercial residential and social housing, as well as a housing information and data system. The aim is to build a transparent and stable market.

Regarding the overall market, Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh, Vice Chair of the Vietnam Real Estate Association, said that 2025 saw the strongest supply since 2020. Transaction volumes nearly reached the level seen during the stable development period before 2020. 

Price movements showed a sharp increase at the beginning of 2025, then leveled off from mid-year onward.

The nationwide administrative reorganization, under which the number of provinces and centrally governed cities has been reduced to 34, has formed many large-scale real estate markets with strong spillover effects. Short-term speculative “waves” have been disrupted, and galloping price increases have been brought under control, helping the market operate in a more sustainable direction.

Dinh said many real estate projects that had legal obstacles removed over the past year contributed a significant supply to the market. Public investment continues to be accelerated, stimulating investment demand, which has tended to shift toward the southern regions.

Real estate prices depend on many factors, such as land-use fees, construction costs, infrastructure investment, interest expenses, and selling costs. Among these, capital costs account for a large proportion. The longer a project’s implementation period, the higher the capital costs become.

“Statistics show that transactions in the second half of 2025 accounted for up to 63 percent of total transactions for the year. This reflects a clear improvement in market sentiment. In addition, strong growth in the social housing segment has also delivered positive signals to the market,” he said.

Housing prices 

Tran Si Nam, Deputy Director of the HCMC Department of Construction, said that after new regulations officially took effect, businesses exited the “defensive” mode. Transparency in project information and the annual land-pricing process helped filter out investors who lacked real capacity.

As evidence of market recovery, a representative of the HCMC Department of Construction said the city’s real estate business revenue last year was estimated at VND387,683 billion, up 8.6 percent compared to 2024.

In late 2025, HCMC planned to start building 20 transport infrastructure projects. These are all interregional connectivity projects that expand development space, attract investment, and create momentum for growth.

“Public investment creates opportunities for satellite projects to develop strongly, especially real estate projects in areas that directly benefit, such as gateway zones and areas adjacent to HCMC,” Nam said.

Dinh said that the rebound in housing supply will give buyers more choices. Low-income earners will also have more opportunities to access housing as more social housing projects are implemented.

Regarding housing prices, the expert believes that the likelihood of a decline is not high, as input costs continue to trend upward, especially land-use fees. 

Short-term, speculative investment activities will be difficult to sustain as the State’s regulatory system becomes increasingly synchronized and is managed through digital infrastructure and data.

Anh Phuong