VietNamNet Bridge - Major General Le Van Cuong, former director of the Institute of Strategy Studies, the Ministry of Public Security, told Dan Tri online newspaper that the ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, the Netherlands on the Philippines’ lawsuit against China’s nine-dash line claims in the East Sea (internationally known as the South China Sea) is a break-through for Vietnam’s struggle to defend its legitimate rights and interests and sovereignty in the East Sea.

Major General Le Van Cuong, former director of the Institute of Strategy Studies, the Ministry of Public Security.

Q: The Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) on July 12 ruled that there is no legal foundation for China’s U-shaped line claims in the East Sea. What do you think of the ruling?

Le Van Cuong: I think this is a very honest judgment, in accordance with objective and historical reality. I fully believe in international justice and the verdict of the Tribunal. China does not have any legal basis for the 9-dotted line claims.

The Tribunal's ruling again rejected the absurd claims of China with the so-called "sovereignty in the East Sea." This also means that Beijing's claims over Vietnam’s Truong Sa (Spratly) and Hoang Sa (Paracel) Islands is entirely illegal, regardless of international law.

Before the PCA made the ruling, China had made a series of aggressive actions in the East Sea, such as invading Vietnam’s Hoang Sa on January 19th 1974 and Vietnam’s seven reefs on March 14 1988. China's actions violated point 3, item 4 of Article 2 of the Charter of the United Nations, Resolution 2625 of the UN General Assembly and generally international law.

Therefore, the PCA’s ruling on July 12 is extremely important. It reflects the voice of conscience, of progressive human kind and indirectly urges the international community to be alert and take tough measures against China's actions to deliberately cause tension in the East Sea.

Q: The East Sea case between the Philippines and China is considered the case of the century because this was the first time a country used legal measures to resolve conflicts in the East Sea. What is the meaning of the ruling in the present context and whether it can change the face of the East Sea?

Le Van Cuong: First of all, I have to say that the Tribunal's ruling is not mandatory for China. But I think that this judgment is meaningful on the point that it is on behalf of the United Nations, on behalf of the international community and progressive mankind to make a conclusion that is fully consistent with objective reality.

This demonstrates that the PCA worked very seriously, fairly and impartially. The ruling also demonstrates that international law has been respected, international law is paramount, not national strength.

Secondly, after this decision, the international community will surely have a different view on China.

Legally, China has trampled upon international law. China is a permanent member of the UN Security Council but it does not comply with the UN Charter.

In the political and moral aspects, for many times Chinese leaders claimed to respect the sovereignty of its neighbors; committed to join other countries to maintain peace, stability and development.

On September 25th 2015 at the White House’s Rose Garden, in a meeting with US President Barack Obama, Chinese President Xi Jinping also declared to the world that China did not militarize the East Sea.

But on February 12th 2016, China installed 8 surface-to-air missile launchers in Phu Lam (Woody) Island and 4 high frequency radar systems for military purposes. Then they continued to build up, sent war planes to its runways on Chu Thap (Fiery Cross Reef) and Gac Ma (Johnson South Reef).

In all aspects, nobody can believe in China because they frequently "say one thing and do another." I think this ruling once again proves that justice must belong to reason, not to the power.

Q: What do you think about China’s response after the ruling?

An artificial island of China in the East Sea. Photo CSIS

Le Van Cuong: First of all, I have to say that Chinese leaders are visionary. They had certainly prepared scenarios for the worst. They may react in two ways.

Firstly, China will launch a great media campaign to continue to lie to the world about the so-called "China’s sovereignty in the East Sea," while enticing the support of others. China will often make claims that they have a legal basis for the Spratly and Paracel islands and the PCA’s ruling is invaluable and unrelated to them.

Secondly, Beijing may take actions on the field. They may continue militarization in the East Sea in a faster, more aggressive way. China has built runways for war planes and in the coming time they may send long-ranger bomber-aircraft to the runway on the Fiery Cross Reef or war planes J10, J11, 30 ... to Johnson South Reef or install HQ 9 rocket launcher rigs in the Spratly and Paracel Islands

It is also possible that they will build many works on Scarborough and turn it into a military base. Of course this is not easy.

Another scenario is that China will set up the air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the East Sea under 3 levels.

At the lowest level, they will set up the ADIZ over the Paracel Islands. There China has prepared technical and material infrastructure such as airports, war planes, HQ9 surface-to-air missile, and high frequency radar systems. If this happens, China’s ADIZ will overlap the airspace of Vietnam and the Philippines, the flight information regions of Hanoi, HCM City and Hong Kong.

At a more serious level, China will set an ADIZ in the Spratly Islands and this will affect international aviation security because this ADIZ will overlap the flight information zones of a series of Ho Chi Minh City, Singapore, Malaysia, ....

The final step is that China can set up the ADIZ on the area inside the 9-dotted line. This is the most serious and dangerous level. If it happens, the entire East Sea will become a hot spot.

I think China will make moves while watching the response of the United States and the international community. However, today China is unable to do anything it wants. If they make excessive aggression, they will be boycotted by the international community.

Q: What is the ruling’s impacts on Vietnam, in your opinion?

Le Van Cuong: The Philippines formally brought the case to the PCA in January 2013. It is not easy for the Philippines to pursue this case. They had to prepare 4,000 pages of documents. They had an extremely good team of lawyers. So, if there's a similar scenario happening for Vietnam, we can learn from them about the preparation of legal documents.

The ruling on July 12 is also beneficial to Vietnam in the struggle to defend its legitimate rights and interests, and sovereignty in the East Sea. Thus, Vietnam will have more legal power.

Translated from Dan Tri