Viet Nam’s stock market outlook will likely remain negative this week as a lack of supporting business information and potential global risks drive investor confidence down, according to analysts.

A trading session on the Ha Noi Stock Exchange. 

The benchmark VN Index dropped slightly on Friday to finish last week at 712.41 points. Viet Nam’s key index has declined for two consecutive days and fell a total 0.8 per cent from the previous week.

The minor HNX Index on the Ha Noi Stock Exchange closed up 0.5 per cent on Friday, ending last week at 88.87 points. The northern market index lost 0.9 per cent week on week.

It also marked the second consecutive losing week for the VN Index and the fourth for the HNX Index, signaling a tough trading week ahead.

Market trading volume decreased by 12.4 per cent from the previous week to an average of more than 230.8 million shares being traded in each session, but market trading value gained 7.3 per cent to VND4.92 trillion (US$218.78 million).

According to some analysts, the correction of the stock market last week with lower trading activities is a sign that the market will continue to decline and that decline is necessary given current market conditions.

The VN Index has consistently increased since December 2016, adding more than 70 points from the level of 650 points, extraordinary improvement, with the market now needing a break before climbing higher, said Nguyen Hong Khanh, head of analysis division at Sacombank Securities Company.

From this week onwards, investors will continue to offload their portfolios as the stock market runs out of supporting information as firms will soon complete organising their annual shareholder meetings and report their first-quarter results, he said.

In addition, earnings reports published last week by companies, such as brokerages, did not result in positive moves for their stocks as earnings had been priced in earlier by investor expectations and the share prices increased in the past few months, Khanh said.

Analysts also warned that potential global risk and the familiar “Sell in May” mind set will drive investor confidence down.

Vu Minh Duc, head of individual investor analysis division at Viet Capital Securities Company, said that market trading liquidity had declined in recent sessions as investors were cautious.

Investors have been cautious with market trading on global risks, which are occurring in the Korean Peninsula and in the Middle East, he said.

Petrolimex and BIDV in focus

This week, the stock market may see strong changes in the shares of the Bank for Investment and Development of Viet Nam (BIDV) and the Viet Nam National Petroleum Group (Petrolimex).

BIDV will attract investors after the bank decided at its annual shareholder meeting on Saturday to pay a 7 per cent dividend in cash on the request of the finance ministry.

Meanwhile, analysts foresee a downward trend for Petrolimex’s shares as the company may suffer from profit-taking.

Nguyen The Minh, an analyst at Sai Gon Securities Inc, said that Petrolimex shares would have to withstand heavy pressure from profit-taking after being listed on the HCM Stock Exchange on Friday.

He said that the number of Petrolimex shares had increased in 2016 and the company’s share prices also rose strongly when they were traded in the over-the-counter market.

Minh warns that Petrolimex is now among the 10 largest companies by market capitalisation and its shares will have strong impact on the market. Potential risks for the development of Petrolimex will be included in the volatile global oil prices and the company’s business policies. 

VNS