This reality is prompting a shift toward reorganising production, distribution, and supply linkages to enhance resilience and sustain export growth.

In an official dispatch on measures to boost exports in 2026 issued recently, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh stressed the requirement to develop and upgrade transport infrastructure, warehousing systems, deep-water seaports, and logistics centres to meet the demand of goods import-export. He also called for strengthening the capacity and market share of Vietnamese shipping firms in international cargo transport.

Widespread impact

Nguyen Van Thich, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Xa No Mekong rice cooperative union in the Mekong Delta city of Can Tho, said that rising logistics costs are exerting pressure on the entire production chain. Transport costs for moving paddy from fields to processing plants have surged by 30–50% ahead of the winter-spring harvest and are expected to remain volatile, especially in remote areas.

Notably, these increases are compounded by higher fertiliser prices and a 30–40% rise in machinery rental costs for harvesting, significantly pushing up overall input expenses. As a result, average profits per hectare could fall by 15–20%, dampening farmers’ willingness to reinvest.

The seafood sector faces similar challenges. Exporters say the most immediate impact of ongoing tensions in the Middle East is not declining demand but soaring logistics costs, heightened transport risks, and fuel price fluctuations. Several shipping lines have raised surcharges by 2,000–4,000 USD per refrigerated container, alongside additional risk and fuel fees.

Domestic logistics costs have also climbed due to rising diesel prices, with local transport firms increasing fees by around 500,000 VND (nearly 19 USD) per 40-foot container.

According to Nguyen Hoai Nam, Secretary General of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), exports to key markets such as the US, Japan, and Western Europe have not yet faced major direct impacts beyond higher freight rates. However, shipments to the Middle East and Southern Europe are encountering serious difficulties, with some exporters suspending operations due to limited shipping availability and elevated risks.

Strengthening production linkages, taking proactive logistics planning

Experts say restructuring production along value chains is key to mitigating logistics pressures.

Dong Van Canh, Director of New Green Farm Cooperative, noted that applying low-emission, large-scale farming practices in the Mekong Delta has helped improve rice yield and quality, creating room to offset rising logistics costs.

More importantly, concentrated production linked through cooperatives enables more efficient collection, storage, and transport arrangements, thereby reducing per-unit costs. In contrast, fragmented small-scale production tends to inflate logistics expenses and weaken overall efficiency.

However, international transport remains vulnerable to geopolitical tensions. Recent conflicts involving the US, Israel, and Iran have increased risks along key maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal, potentially driving up costs, disrupting shipments, and also reshaping how import markets select their partners.

Do Ngoc Hung, Trade Counsellor and Head of the Vietnam Trade Office in the US, said American importers are becoming more cautious, prioritising suppliers capable of ensuring stable delivery, transparency, and flexibility in commercial terms. Vietnamese firms, therefore, must not only remain price-competitive but also demonstrate consistency in delivery, reliability in contract performance, and a strong capacity to manage risks in international logistics.

VASEP has called on the Ministry of Industry and Trade and other relevant authorities to consider support policies for businesses as logistics and fuel costs surge, while stepping up coordination with international shipping lines to help stabilise transport routes serving exports.

Ngo Khac Le, Deputy Secretary General of the Vietnam Logistics Business Association, advised businesses to review shipping contracts and bills of lading, especially war-risk and deviation clauses, and to add provisions covering route changes or unplanned cargo discharge.

He also recommended strengthening logistics insurance to cover emerging geopolitical risks, diversifying transport routes and transshipment ports to reduce reliance on a single channel, developing contingency plans, identifying alternative ports, adopting flexible transport modes, and building partnerships with bonded warehouses and logistics providers in key transit hubs to enhance resilience./. VNA