For Vietnam, the impact of this conflict does not primarily come from direct trade relations. Trade turnover between Vietnam and countries such as Iran or Israel represents only a small share of the country’s more than US$900 billion in total import-export value. However, with trade openness among the highest in the world - equivalent to nearly 200% of GDP - Vietnam is particularly sensitive to external shocks.

As a result, the effects of the conflict are transmitted mainly through three indirect channels: energy prices, logistics costs and global financial market fluctuations.

Oil prices - the most sensitive variable

Energy markets typically react fastest to conflicts in the Middle East. The region accounts for roughly one-third of global oil supply, with the shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz alone handling nearly 20% of the world’s daily oil trade.

When geopolitical risks rise, markets quickly respond by pushing oil prices upward.

Even a US$10-per-barrel increase in oil prices could raise annual energy import costs for many Asian economies by tens of billions of dollars.

Vietnam still produces crude oil, but the economy continues to import large volumes of refined petroleum products to meet production and consumption needs. In 2025, Vietnam imported 9.9 million tons of petroleum products with a total value of about US$6.8 billion.

In the crude oil category, imports reached 14.1 million tons with a value of around US$7.7 billion.

As global oil prices rise, cost-push inflation pressure tends to appear almost immediately. Fuel is a key input across nearly every sector of the economy, from transportation and logistics to industrial production and agriculture.

Transport costs alone account for roughly 15-20% of the cost structure in many manufacturing industries, meaning energy price fluctuations can quickly spread throughout the economy.

This dynamic also creates new challenges for inflation control. Vietnam is currently targeting inflation at around 4-4.5%. However, if oil prices remain high for an extended period, pressure on the consumer price index could increase significantly.

Global transport and logistics costs rise

The second transmission channel lies in global supply chains and logistics networks.

The Middle East is a major crossroads for maritime routes connecting Asia and Europe. When instability rises in the region, shipping companies often increase maritime insurance premiums, adjust routes or extend travel times to avoid high-risk areas.

In practice, even modest increases in war-risk insurance or fuel prices can push shipping rates higher. The experience of 2021-2022 showed that container transport costs from Asia to Europe once surged four to five times when global supply chains were severely disrupted.

For Vietnam, which recorded export turnover exceeding US$475 billion in 2025, logistics is a critical factor in the competitiveness of its goods.

When transport costs increase, profit margins of export-oriented businesses shrink, particularly in industries with relatively low added value such as textiles, wood processing and contract electronics manufacturing.

Rising fuel prices also directly affect domestic transportation sectors, from road freight to aviation.

As a result, Vietnam’s logistics costs - already estimated at around 16-20% of GDP - face further pressure.

Financial markets: exchange rate and capital flow pressures

The third transmission channel comes from global financial markets.

During periods of geopolitical instability, investors tend to withdraw capital from riskier markets and shift toward safer assets such as the US dollar, gold or US government bonds.

This trend can place pressure on exchange rates in emerging economies.

For Vietnam, when energy prices rise, the demand for foreign currency to import fuel and production inputs also increases, making the foreign exchange market more sensitive.

Nevertheless, the overall impact on Vietnam is considered relatively limited, as direct trade between Vietnam and the Middle East accounts for only a small share of total export value. In addition, the economy has accumulated considerable macroeconomic management experience through previous periods of global volatility.

In the short term, the greatest risk to Vietnam’s economy still lies in cost-push inflation and rising transportation expenses. If oil prices remain high, production and operating costs for businesses will face clear upward pressure.

In the longer term, the impact will depend largely on two factors: the duration of the conflict and the stability of global energy markets.

If tensions are contained and oil supply is not seriously disrupted, Vietnam’s economy is likely to experience only moderate effects.

However, if the conflict escalates and persists, turbulence in energy and logistics markets could become a new shock for global trade - and an export-oriented economy like Vietnam would find it difficult to remain unaffected.

Postal workers feel the pressure of rising fuel prices

Amid volatile markets, certain figures rise rapidly: oil prices, fuel prices and operating costs. Yet behind those economic charts stands a workforce that rarely appears in financial reports - the postal workers and delivery drivers who ride through city streets every day to bring a package to someone’s door.

They are the final link in the logistics chain, but they also carry the pressure of the entire system.

When fuel prices increase, the first thing a postal worker notices is not macroeconomic analysis but the fuel gauge on the motorbike.

Delivering dozens, sometimes hundreds, of orders a day means traveling tens or even hundreds of kilometers. Even a small increase of a few thousand dong per liter of gasoline can change the cost of an entire day’s work.

For logistics companies, higher fuel prices represent an operational cost challenge. For delivery workers, it becomes a question of daily income.

The paradox lies here: when operating costs rise, companies are forced to adjust service prices to prevent the system from eroding financially.

But when shipping fees increase, the first person to face the customer’s reaction is not the executive board - it is the delivery worker standing at the customer’s door.

Thai Khang