Investing $16 billion into a mega project like Long Thanh International Airport only to have it underperform is more than a missed opportunity - it's a failure to seize a historic moment to build a comprehensive airport-driven economic ecosystem.

As the Long Thanh International Airport project nears operational readiness in 2026, debate is intensifying: Should all international flights be shifted to Long Thanh, or should Vietnam adopt a safer, hybrid operational model that maintains Tan Son Nhat Airport’s international status?

While concerns about “risks” and “inconveniences” are valid, they must be assessed using clear data. The real risk isn’t bold vision - it’s hesitation. And hesitation is what prevents vision from becoming reality.

The sighs above Tan Son Nhat

A visit to the air traffic control tower at Tan Son Nhat International Airport reveals a tangled matrix of aircraft - green dots dancing across the radar. Above Ho Chi Minh City, planes circle in queues for up to an hour, waiting for landing clearance.

Each delay not only drains passengers’ energy and patience, it also imposes a steep cost on airlines and the environment. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), every 15 minutes of circling burns hundreds of liters of Jet A1 fuel, costing airlines tens of millions of dong and compounding the city’s already-choked atmosphere.

This inefficiency is also linked to Vietnam’s stubbornly high logistics costs. While reduced from 25% to 16-18% of GDP in recent years, it remains well above the global average of 10-12%, as reported by the Vietnam Logistics Business Association.

Historical bottlenecks and infrastructural limits

The opening of Terminal T3, boosting Tan Son Nhat’s capacity to nearly 50 million passengers annually, was a much-needed upgrade. Yet it's akin to renovating a house’s living room without widening the alleyway leading to it. Core problems remain.

Firstly, runway limitations. Despite the new terminal, Tan Son Nhat still operates with only two runways - spaced just 365 meters apart. According to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), runways must be at least 1,035 meters apart to operate independently under Instrument Flight Rules (IFR).

Tan Son Nhat's current configuration requires staggered landings and takeoffs, severely curbing efficiency and causing persistent delays both in the sky and on the ground. This is a structural design flaw - a historical constraint with no viable solution.

Secondly, urban development has made airport expansion virtually impossible. The Ho Chi Minh City People's Committee estimates land clearance for northward expansion would cost $9.15 billion. Adding necessary infrastructure like elevated roads and metro links would raise the total to $17.46 billion - more than the $16 billion required to build all three phases of Long Thanh. Furthermore, relocation would displace tens of thousands of residents.

A paradigm shift in strategy

Terminal T3’s activation reaffirms that 50 million passengers per year is the ceiling for Tan Son Nhat. Vietnam's aviation sector needs new momentum.

Retaining Tan Son Nhat offers immediate convenience and low risk, but with permanent spatial, legal, and operational limitations - similar to the struggle of modernizing Heathrow Airport in London.

Long Thanh, by contrast, offers a chance to leap ahead - like Incheon in South Korea or Chek Lap Kok in Hong Kong, both initially doubted but now thriving as global aviation hubs.

This is not a debate about distance, but about direction. Will Vietnam choose safety and short-term comfort at Tan Son Nhat, or embrace long-term transformation by making Long Thanh a true hub for growth?

The century-defining project

Some have proposed a hybrid model: sharing international flights between Tan Son Nhat and Long Thanh. But this “compromise” may lead to failure, especially in a region with fierce competitors like Singapore’s Changi (60+ million passengers/year) or Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi (nearly 65 million pre-pandemic).

Global hubs succeed through seamless connectivity. Top airports allow international transfers within 45-75 minutes in a single terminal. A passenger arriving at Long Thanh from Europe would need 3-4 hours to transfer to ASEAN-bound flights at Tan Son Nhat - processing immigration, collecting luggage, traveling 45 km, and checking in again. This gap is unacceptable.

Logistics would also suffer. High-value goods like semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and electronics demand fast, seamless air transport. A hybrid model forces cargo to undergo multiple handoffs, increasing costs, transit time, and security risks - nullifying Vietnam’s competitive edge.

Missing a historic opportunity

Long Thanh is designed for 100 million passengers annually. If underused, the $16 billion investment would squander Vietnam’s chance to restructure its economy and build an airport-driven ecosystem.

Such an ecosystem would include world-class aircraft maintenance (MRO) facilities, attracting regional airlines and creating thousands of skilled jobs. It could also feature advanced automated logistics centers with direct aircraft docking - like FedEx’s Memphis hub or UPS’s Louisville hub - transforming Vietnam into an e-commerce cargo gateway for the entire region.

To ensure success, the expansion of the Ho Chi Minh City - Long Thanh - Dau Giay expressway must be completed before or alongside Long Thanh’s first phase. But the game-changer is the proposed high-speed rail link between Ho Chi Minh City and Long Thanh.

Like South Korea’s AREX train, which connects Incheon Airport to Seoul in 40 minutes, this railway would cut travel time to 30-35 minutes and eliminate fears of traffic delays, making Long Thanh feel as accessible as any world-class airport.

Once operational, this ecosystem could contribute 3-5% to Vietnam’s GDP and create hundreds of thousands of jobs. Phase 1 alone requires nearly 14,000 direct hires. According to the Airports Council International (ACI), each direct airport job generates 2-3 indirect jobs - meaning 40,000-50,000 jobs could be created early on.

Global inspiration, national ambition

Singapore’s Changi Airport contributes 5-6% of GDP. In the UAE, Dubai International Airport and Emirates Airlines account for 27% of Dubai’s GDP and support 22% of local jobs.

Such grand projects always require sacrifice - and they often start as “crazy ideas.” The Great Wall of China, Paris’s Eiffel Tower, and Beijing’s Bird’s Nest Stadium were all once doubted. Now, they’re timeless symbols of national vision.

Likewise, Long Thanh is not just an airport for Dong Nai, just as Tan Son Nhat is not only for Ho Chi Minh City. Long Thanh’s success must be embraced as a national strategic imperative.

Relocating international flights out of the urban core will reduce congestion, noise, and infrastructure stress. More importantly, a powerful Long Thanh can attract more tourists, investors, and trade flows to the region.

With courage and clarity, Long Thanh has the potential to be Vietnam’s “century-defining” infrastructure - an icon of the country’s ambition in this era of global integration.

Nguyen Phuoc Thang (Hoa Binh University)