The assessment was shared by experts at the launch of the DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026, jointly released by DHL and the Stern School of Business at New York University during an event in Hanoi on March 10.

Short-term disruption likely

According to John Pearson, Chief Executive Officer of DHL Express, logistics and air transport operations in the Middle East were immediately affected when tensions in the region escalated.

In recent days, several flights and cargo transport activities have been suspended or limited, causing disruptions to supply chains.

Despite these challenges, DHL said international trade continues to strive to maintain its recovery momentum and is expected to gradually stabilize once geopolitical tensions ease.

As one of the world’s largest logistics companies, DHL has maintained a presence in the Middle East since 1996. Over the past 12 months, the region has continued to record positive growth thanks to strong demand for cargo transport, particularly in major logistics hubs such as Dubai.

Sharing a similar view, Professor Steven A. Altman, Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at the NYU Stern Center for the Future of Management, said instability in the Middle East will inevitably affect global trade.

The region accounts for around 4-6% of total global goods trade. However, based on economic data and historical developments, Altman believes the current disruption is likely to be short-lived and will not fundamentally alter the ongoing trajectory of globalization.

“I remain optimistic about the region’s ability to recover in the near future,” he said.

The DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026 shows that globalization remains at a record-high level despite rising geopolitical tensions and higher tariffs imposed by the US.

The report measures globalization on a scale from 0% - representing no cross-border activity - to 100%, where borders and distance no longer influence flows. Results for 2025 show that the world’s globalization level reached 25%, matching the record high previously set in 2022.

Experts predict that global trade will continue to expand in the coming years.

Recent US tariff increases may slow trade growth in the short term, but they are unlikely to significantly disrupt global trade flows.

Forecasts indicate that global goods trade will grow at an average rate of 2.6% per year through 2029, roughly in line with growth over the past decade.

One reason global trade continues to expand is that most international commerce does not directly involve the US. In 2025, around 13% of global imports were destined for the US, while 9% of global exports originated from the country.

Meanwhile, many countries are pursuing new trade agreements to ensure access to alternative markets.

Vietnam among top 10 countries improving global connectivity

The report also highlights Vietnam as one of the ten countries with the strongest increase in global connectivity over the past 25 years.

Between 2001 and 2025, Vietnam gained 6.5 points in the Global Connectedness Index.

Two other Asia-Pacific economies, Singapore and Laos, also recorded strong increases during the same period. Singapore currently ranks first in the world in the 2026 globalization index.

In this year’s ranking, Vietnam stands 36th among 180 economies based on international flows of trade, capital, information and people.

Notably, among middle-income economies, Vietnam - together with Malaysia and Thailand - achieved the highest level of global connectedness.

According to Professor Altman, Vietnam’s sustained growth in per capita income over the past decades has gone hand in hand with a surge in trade since the country launched its economic reform policy.

Today, Vietnam ranks sixth globally in terms of goods exports relative to GDP and fifth worldwide in export market reach.

The outlook for the 2026-2030 period is considered highly positive. Vietnam is projected to record the world’s fourth-largest absolute increase in goods trade and the 24th-fastest trade growth rate, at about 6% per year.

“Vietnam is currently the world’s sixth-largest goods exporting economy relative to GDP. I hope Vietnam can continue improving its position to fourth place in the future,” Altman said.

Hong Khanh