It’s highly likely that the tentative motorbike ban in HCMC may face a setback. If the ban is really effective while the public transport system still fails to meet demand, a majority of motorbike drivers will turn to cars. On the contrary, the ban will intensify the public disregard of policies if it is not effective.

It’s highly unlikely that HCMC will be able to double the road space area and length for the traffic of some two million cars in more than a decade to come 

“Pulling” the public to using public transport and “pushing” them off the use of private vehicles is the basic “push-pull” principle in solving the urban traffic problem. Viewed from this principle, the author agrees with many points in the “Draft scheme for promoting public transport in combination with controlling the use of personal motorized vehicles in HCMC.”

However, the city authorities should deliberate the motorbike ban message, the highlight in the draft scheme. This message is likely to accelerate the trend of converting from motorbikes to cars, which is the main cause of the worsening traffic congestion in HCMC. 

If the city authorities adopt the approach towards banning personal vehicles due to failure to find a better solution, the message should be: “By 2030, the city will not allow personal vehicle traffic in some areas, especially the downtown.”

The authorities should make the public understand that vehicle ownership is a personal freedom, but personal vehicle users must pay all the externality costs for the society, that it’s very costly to convert from motorbikes to cars, and that banning motorbikes does not naturally mean a conversion to cars because of the bleak future of public transport. The determination to develop an effective public transport system is a necessary condition.

Past mistake should be avoided

Before the author went to Harvard University to study urban issues in 2016, HCMC Chairman Nguyen Thanh Phong discussed with him some issues of the city government’s concern. Phong said he had just exchanged ideas on urban development issues with a Singapore delegation, and the delegation had particularly noted that the city should avoid problems facing its predecessors. He asked the author to pay attention to those problems during the latter’s study in the U.S.      

Car dependence in urban transport is one of the headaches, or worse, the nightmares for many cities in the world. Therefore, there is a growing tendency of issuing policies to lessen this dependence.

The Business Insider (Jan. 19, 2019) listed 15 big cities which ban cars in different ways, including Madrid, Paris, New York, Oslo, London, Mexico, Copenhagen, Brussels, Milan, Rome, Athens, Frankfurt, Berlin, Bogota and Amsterdam. The list has the names of the most civilized and developed as well as developing cities in the world.

More than two decades ago, HCMC authorities made a strategic mistake when they were not determined to develop the public transport systems and to adopt a strong policy for motorbikes. This mistake may repeat with cars.

In the initial period of doi moi (renovation), the main means of transport of the public is the bicycle, which was associated with the image of fatigue and obsolescence. Their aspiration at that time was the ownership of a motorbike. Most people thought of its convenience and elegance and few imagined its consequential problem today. A Dream II motorbike, which cost ten taels of gold, was a big property like a car today.

If someone dared to ask for a restriction of motorbikes and if social media existed at that time, that person would be strongly criticized. The familiar argument would be: “Motorbikes are a product of civilization. They are manufactured in Japan, a developed country. Why restriction? Are you against civilization?” The consequence is a motorbike society today.

The weariness of motorbikes of many people today is like the fatigue with bicycles in the 1990s and their longing for car ownership is similar to the aspiration for having a motorbike that time. However, in view of the problems facing preceding countries and what Vietnam has to suffer today, it’s highly probable that the weariness of cars may occur in more than a decade to come. This mistake should be avoided.

The danger of motorbike-to-car conversion

According to figures in the draft scheme, there were 8.5 million motorbikes and 330,000 cars in HCMC in 2017, occupying 72.5% and 11.2% of the road space respectively. The road occupancy of a car is four times as much as that of a motorbike.

With the utopian assumption that the number of means of transport does not increase in established areas where road expansion is impossible, if all motorbike users turn to public transport and cars at a ratio of three means of public transport to one car, the traffic situation would remain in the status quo. The expectation that public transport will serve 75% of the travel demand (in established areas) in more than a decade to come may be a utopia.

With the present scenario of development, it is estimated that HCMC will have 847,000 cars and 9.6 million motorbikes in 2030. So, the road space needed for more than 500,000 additional cars will be equivalent to that for more than two million motorbikes.

Under the second plan in the scheme (the chosen plan), public transport is expected to meet 36.8% of the travel demand by 2030. The rate should be higher in the downtown area. Assuming that the rate of using public transport in combination with walking in planned motorbike banned areas is 60%, cars would make up the remaining 40%, and so, the road space there must increase at least 50%.

Citywide, if 25% of the current motorbikes are converted into cars, the road space for those cars will be equivalent to that for 8.5 million motorbikes. Plus the population increase and minus the number of people converting to using public transport, the road space needed in the existing areas must increase more than 50%. However, the possibility of road expansion in the existing areas, especially the downtown, is small (In the 2011-2017 period, the road space expansion is only 0.3% per year). So, it’s not difficult to visualize the future transport situation of the city.

The suggested approach

Under the approved plan, the population in HCMC is estimated at 12.5 million people by 2025, and the figure may increase to over 13 million by 2030. In 2017, HCMC had 4,202km of roads. If the road expansion can increase 1.47% per year like the rate in the 2011-2017 period, the total road length will be just around 5,000km by 2030.

The second plan envisages that HCMC will have 8,800 buses at most and six subways by 2030. With the current average investment cost of over VND3 trillion for a kilometer and an estimated fund of VND250 trillion, the total length of the subways could hardly be higher than that of the subways in Manila in 2015 (75km). In a broader meaning, with the current modus operandi, the transport infrastructure in HCMC could hardly be better than that of Manila in 2015 (See table). At present, HCMC does not face severe traffic congestion as Manila does thanks to motorbikes. However, what will the situation be like when motorbikes are replaced with cars and the city has a public transport system in place as planned?

Seoul is a model worthy of study for HCMC. In this city, the economic model, housing and transport are closely connected. Most people in Seoul work in the official economic sector, live in apartments and use public transport. The municipal government has developed successfully and operated effectively the public transport system under the condensed city (high density in a small area) and the transit oriented development (TOD) approaches.

It’s highly unlikely that HCMC will be able to double the road space area and length for the traffic of some two million cars in more than a decade to come. Therefore, the key solution is to develop the public transport system under the TOD approach along with changing the economic activity model and the housing model. The implementation of the solution, of course, must be different from the current modus operandi, and the message as well as the policy for personal means of transport must be clear-cut and strong.

In sum, it’s highly likely that the tentative motorbike ban in HCMC may face a setback. If the ban is really effective while the public transport system still cannot meet demand, a majority of motorbike users will turn to cars, and the traffic situation will turn much worse. On the contrary, the ban will intensify the public disregard of policies if it is ineffective. Therefore, the city authorities should deliberate carefully the motorbike ban message, as it may do more harm than good.

SGT