As Vietnam is moving into 2026 amid deeper market integration, growing dependence on a limited number of major markets is exposing exports to mounting risks, underscoring the urgency of proactively tapping new markets to ensure sustainable growth.

Approaching the growth ceiling

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT), Vietnam’s export turnover is forecast to reach about 470 billion USD by the end of this year, up roughly 16% from 2024. In the first 11 months of 2025, total import-export revenue hit 839.8 billion USD, including 430.2 billion USD in exports, a year-on-year rise of 16.1%.

However, export markets remain highly concentrated, with the US accounting for around 32% of total exports, the EU 15%, China nearly 14%, ASEAN close to 10%, and the Republic of Korea (RoK) and Japan about 6% each. Altogether, more than 80% of Vietnam’s export value is tied to these six markets.

At a recent Vietnam export promotion forum, Vu Ba Phu, Director General of the MoIT’s Trade Promotion Agency, said that focusing on key markets has helped enterprises capitalise on tariff preferences and free trade agreements, enabling rapid export growth when demand in major markets rebounds. Yet, he warned, this approach also heightens vulnerability to policy shocks.

Tran Phu Lu, Director of the HCM City Investment and Trade Promotion Centre, noted that most trade defence investigations, carbon tax pressures, labour and environmental requirements, and traceability demands originate from Vietnam’s largest export destinations. When these markets simultaneously tighten standards, room for growth will narrow unless businesses adapt promptly.

Many export pillars, he added, are nearing their “growth ceiling”. In the industrial and electronics group, contributing over 30% of total exports, the US, the EU and the RoK remain key markets. However, low domestic value added and heavy reliance on imported components remain major constraints. As rules of origin become more stringent, export competitiveness will weaken unless localisation improves.

A similar pattern is seen in textiles, garments and footwear, which account for about 12-13% of total exports. The US absorbs nearly 40% of the sector’s exports, followed by the EU at around 15%, and Japan and the RoK at 8-9% each.

Truong Van Cam, Vice Chairman and Secretary General of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association, said that from 2026 onwards, growth will no longer come from expanding output, but from retaining orders through green transition, labour compliance and supply chain transparency. Enterprises slow to adjust risk losing ground even in traditional markets.

For agricultural products, processed foods and seafood, exports have approached 70 billion USD annually, accounting for around 16% of total turnover. While China remains a major destination, shipments to the EU, Japan and the RoK are rising, signalling a shift towards markets with higher standards but greater value-added potential. At the same time, these products face immediate and growing pressure from regulations on food safety, residues and quarantine.

Clear segmentation, meeting standards

Tran Phu Lu said market development strategies should be pursued along two parallel tracks, with tailored priorities for different market groups.

For traditional markets such as China, the EU and the US, the focus should be on improving the quality of growth to expand market share. This includes promoting deep processing, investing in research and development, upgrading designs, increasing value added, and supporting enterprises in meeting stricter requirements on quality, traceability, green production and integration into global distribution networks.

For new and potential markets, meeting standards is a prerequisite. Markets such as Halal, India and Africa will only offer real opportunities if enterprises make systematic investments in production processes, establish dedicated production lines, and obtain required certifications in line with international practices.

Echoing this view, Dr Vo Tri Thanh, Director of the Institute for Brand and Competitiveness Strategy Research, said new market entry must be based on clear segmentation, right products, right channels and right standards, so these markets can act as “buffers” easing pressure on core destinations. Alongside direct exports, indirect exports and cross-border e-commerce are identified as important avenues for market diversification.

At the macro level, Dr Nguyen Minh Phong of the Hanoi Institute for Socio-Economic Development observed that Vietnam’s exports in 2026 will need to transition towards a multi-pillar, multi-market and multi-value-chain model. Achieving this shift will require concrete, well-sequenced and feasible steps to help Vietnamese goods go further and remain competitive in an increasingly challenging global environment./. VNA