Many small businesses like the pho shop prefer to keep cash instead of expanding investment, because what they fear is not a lack of customers, but the feeling of risk and uncertainty about inspections, audits, or unpredictable policy changes.

Meanwhile, the number of newly established enterprises is now almost equal to the number of businesses exiting the market.

The gap between the huge expectations of Resolution 68 and the actual sentiment of many people doing business is becoming clearer.

A landmark resolution

Le Minh Nghia, chair of the Vietnam Financial Consulting Association (VFCA), calls Resolution 68 a “landmark,” or even “great” resolution, as he believes it creates “a new awareness, motivation, and determination to transition the country toward a modern market economy.”

According to Resolution 68, the private sector comprises over 940,000 enterprises and 5 million business households, contributing about 50 percent of GDP, over 30 percent of total budget revenue, and employing about 82 percent of the workforce. 

The resolution sets a goal of 2 million active enterprises by 2030 and the formation of large private firms capable of joining global value chains. This shows the private sector is expected to be the most important growth driver in the coming period.

However, after one year, the gap between goals and feasibility remains wide. Nghia notes that Vietnam has few enterprises compared to the region. Currently, Vietnam has about one enterprise per 100 people, while Singapore is at 10 people per enterprise and South Korea is at 6.6.

Nguyen Dinh Cung, former director of CIEM, said the trend of market entry versus exit is worsening. Previously, entrants and returnees significantly outnumbered exits; now, the ratio is nearly 1:1. In 2025, about 300,000 firms entered or re-entered the market, while over 227,000 exited. In the first four months of this year, about 119,400 firms entered or returned, while 108,900 exited.

So, the pressure to reach the 2 million enterprise target by 2030 is very high.

Bui Thanh Minh, Deputy Director of the Office of Board IV, said that in the first three months of the year, about 32,000 enterprises registered or resumed operations each month, but about 30,400 enterprises exited the market.

That means the economy netted only about 1,600 enterprises per month, a pace that makes it very difficult to reach the 2 million target in the next few years.

Business reactions

Minh said Resolution 68 once created a strong wave of expectations in the business community. However, over time, the initial excitement is fading, especially among small enterprises and household businesses.

“Large enterprises are now happier than small and medium ones, while household businesses still do not clearly feel the benefits,” he said.busin

According to a survey by Board IV, out of 10 enterprises, seven still hold a cautious or negative sentiment about business prospects. That shows the gap between the reform spirit at the policy level and the actual perception of businesses remains large.

Le Xuan Nghia, a respected economist, said what is more worrying now is not just the number of enterprises, but the declining investment momentum of the private sector. He noted that at one point the private sector accounted for about 91 percent of total economic investment, but now the share is only about 67 percent.

Behind that defensive mentality is pressure from compliance costs and a growing sense of risk. Many household businesses choose to downsize, split revenue, or continue operating as individual households instead of stepping up to a corporate model.

This is a major paradox of the economy today. Vietnam has more than 5 million household businesses, the largest source of future enterprises if it wants to reach the 2 million target, but many people still do not want to “grow up” into enterprises.

Le Duy Binh, director of Economica Vietnam, said Vietnam will struggle to achieve this target without fundamentally changing thinking about the corporate model.

The fact that there are more than 5 million household businesses shows Vietnamese people do not lack entrepreneurial spirit. What makes many hesitate is the feeling that entering the formal corporate sector means more procedures, more costs, and more legal risks.

Tu Giang