Vietnam is experiencing a period of “golden population structure” (understood as the proportion of labourers doubling the dependent population), which is forecast to last until 2034.

Vietnam's "golden population structure" is forecast to last until 2034

The length of the “golden population” era depends on the adjustment of the fertility rate in each country. Vietnam’s fertility rate has been declining rapidly, reaching and maintaining replacement fertility (2.1 children per woman) since 2006. Roughly half of the working-age population aged below 34 will be a favourable “hitch” for the absorption of science-technology, the flexibility in occupational change, the generation of wealth for society, and the facilitation of fast economic growth. Meanwhile, this is the moment to accumulate resources, increase investment in social security, healthcare, education and employment in the future, and prepare conditions to cope with the challenges of the post “golden population” period.

According to scientists, the “golden population structure” usually lasts from 30 to 35 years, or even longer. Many countries in the world have taken full advantage of this opportunity to create miracles in economic development and develop their countries.

The “golden population structure” also poses a number of difficulties and challenges that need to be resolved. For example, a rapid increase in the working-age population can become a burden on society if the country has a high unemployment rate but low labour productivity. In Vietnam, the current “golden population” era reports a large number of labourers but a serious shortage of skilled labourers and inadequacy in management skills. Despite a high proportion of labourers in agriculture, the area of farm land is shrinking due to urbanisation and the change of land use purposes, resulting in increasing underemployment among young people. The rate of young migrants has increased rapidly, while the policies on labour, employment and social services have not been adjusted correspondingly.

According to experts, to overcome the limitations and bring into full play the advantages of the “golden population structure”, it is necessary to synchronously implement solutions, such as maintaining a reasonable fertility rate in order to prolong the “golden population structure” period, and slowing down the process of population ageing.

Employment opportunities need to be increased, especially jobs that generate added values, in addition to diversifying occupations in rural areas, improving the quality of vocational training, and training labourers according to the needs of the labour market. The information and forecast of labour supply and demand in each profession should also be strengthened.

Furthermore, it is necessary to apply modern information technology in the registration, management and census of the population, aiming to ensure the accurate, effective and timely supply of basic statistics on population in service of research, analysis, forecast and the implementation of policies in the context of rapidly and diversely transforming society.

Nhan Dan