At the “2026 Real Estate Market Outlook – Catalysts for a New Growth Cycle” forum hosted by Construction Newspaper recently, government officials and experts shared their assessments of the year ahead.

Deputy Minister of Construction Nguyen Van Sinh reported that Vietnam currently has 1,114 active commercial housing and urban development projects, supplying approximately 529,000 units. In addition, 679 social housing projects are underway, expected to provide around 657,000 units.

In 2025, around 580,000 housing transactions were recorded nationwide. Average property prices - including land - increased by 10–15% per year, with occasional surges beyond that range. Of the nearly 3,000 projects previously stalled due to legal issues, 926 have now been resolved.

"The year 2025 laid the groundwork for a new growth cycle in 2026," Deputy Minister Sinh stated. “However, challenges persist - particularly a shortage of affordable housing, a price-income mismatch, and incomplete housing data infrastructure.”

The ministry plans to continue refining regulations, accelerating the development of affordable commercial and social housing, and building a transparent, stable housing data system.

A new market phase begins

According to Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Association of Realtors, 2025 marked the strongest housing supply since 2020. Transaction volumes neared levels seen before the market slowdown. Prices surged early in the year but plateaued in the second half.

With Vietnam’s administrative map now reduced to 34 provinces and cities, new large-scale property markets have emerged, bringing broader influence. Speculative short-term investment waves have lost steam, and runaway price hikes have been curbed - steering the market toward more sustainable growth.

Dr. Dinh noted that legal obstacles cleared in 2025 unlocked a major influx of supply. At the same time, public investment remained a strong stimulus for demand, particularly in southern regions.

"Notably, 63% of 2025’s transactions occurred in the second half, signaling a marked improvement in market sentiment. The strong growth in social housing also points to a healthier, more inclusive market," he added.

Developers regain confidence, but prices remain sticky

According to Tran Si Nam, Deputy Director of Ho Chi Minh City’s Department of Construction, the introduction of new regulations and improved transparency in project data and land pricing have helped weed out less capable investors.

He cited the city’s estimated real estate revenue in 2025 at over USD 15.5 billion - an 8.6% increase year-on-year.

At the end of 2025, the city also launched 20 major transportation infrastructure projects, all of which are regional connectors designed to expand growth zones and attract new investment.

"Public investment is creating strong momentum for satellite real estate projects, especially those in gateway and peripheral areas around the city," said Mr. Nam.

Dr. Dinh agreed that increasing supply would offer more options for buyers, including those with lower incomes, as social housing projects gain traction. Still, he cautioned that housing prices are unlikely to fall significantly in 2026.

"Input costs remain high - particularly land use fees - so price reductions are not probable. Short-term speculative investors are being phased out, and the state’s growing use of digital infrastructure and data systems is tightening regulation," he explained.

No sharp drop in sight

Despite the improved environment and healthier market fundamentals, experts say home prices will stay firm due to several structural factors: rising development costs, land scarcity in prime areas, and the persistent gap between affordable supply and actual demand.

The market is recovering - but affordable housing remains an unmet need. For Vietnam’s next real estate cycle to be truly sustainable, it must not only grow - but grow with equity.

Anh Phuong