GSO, in its latest report, noted that Vietnam remains in the "golden population " period, in which there are two working-age individuals for every dependent person.

Compared to 2019, the proportion of the population aged 15-64 decreased by 0.6 percentage points, the proportion under 15 years dropped by 1 percentage point, and the proportion aged 65 and older increased by 1.6 percentage points.

Since 2011, Vietnam has entered the aging population phase and is among the countries with the fastest aging rates globally.

4 more million elderly people in six years

In 2024, the number of people aged 60 and older reached 14.2 million, an increase of 2.8 million compared to 2019 and 4.7 million compared to 2014. By 2030, this figure is forecasted to approach 18 million, exceeding the earlier projection of 17.2 million.

Le Thanh Dung, Director of the Population Department under the Ministry of Health (MOH), stated that by 2038 one in every five Vietnamese will be over 60 years old.

"Vietnam is experiencing rapid aging due to increasing life expectancy and declining birth rates," GSO observed.

Life expectancy in Vietnam has steadily risen, reaching 74.5 years in 2023—nearly one year higher than the average of the previous four years—and increasing further to 74.6 years in 2024, according to MOH.

Meanwhile, Vietnam’s birth rate continues to decline. The 2024 mid-term population and housing survey revealed a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.91 children per woman, down from the record low of 1.96 in 2023, marking the lowest observed level to date.

The TFR in urban areas stands at 1.67 children per woman, lower than the rural rate of 2.08 children per woman. A total of 32 provinces and cities have a TFR below the replacement level (under 2.1 children per woman), 25 have a TFR around the replacement level, and six have a TFR above the replacement level (exceeding 2.5 children per woman).

GSO reported that aside from policies to maintain a stable birth rate and prevent a rapid decline, attempting to halt an aging population is impractical and misaligned with development trends. Instead, adaptive policies are necessary.

Comprehensive financial and health preparation for old age

Beyond recommendations to improve policies for effectively utilizing the labor supply—especially older workers—GSO suggested long-term studies on raising the retirement age. It advocated expanding the social insurance system by promoting a multi-tiered, multi-pillar framework to enhance coverage, improve beneficiaries’ living standards, and reduce the burden on the state budget.

The healthcare system and the quality of long-term health services for the elderly require attention. Additionally, a strategy for preparing financially and physically for old age "from a distance and early on" should be prioritized. This includes encouraging the young population to take social insurance to better prepare for their later years, allowing them to "have a pension, avoid the need “to tirelessly earn money, and live with greater satisfaction”.

Giang Thanh Long, a senior expert on population and development at the National Economics University (Hanoi), stated that finance and health are two of the three pillars forming a solid "three-legged stool" for "successful aging." The third pillar is participation in social activities through family and community activities.

Long emphasized that an elderly person who is healthy and wealthy but socially isolated, lacking interaction, cannot be considered successfully aged. Similarly, a 60-year-old with good financial capability and a desire to socialize but plagued by chronic illness and physical decline does not represent successful aging.

A survey on "Vietnamese Readiness for Life in Old Age," led by Professor Long, found that 26 percent of respondents believed planning for health in old age should begin at age 50, nearly 21 percent chose age 40, and only 16.4 percent suggested age 30.

The same survey asked about the age to begin financial preparation for old age. Approximately 22 percent of participants believed it should start "from age 50 onward," nearly 20 percent said "from age 40 onward," and 14.6 percent responded "from age 30 onward."

Professor Nguyen Dinh Cu, former Director of the Institute of Population and Social Issues at the National Economics University, remarked that starting to prepare for old age at 36 is "somewhat late." He explained that if young people lack health awareness, smoking or drinking heavily from ages 16 or 18, by 36 they would have maintained harmful habits for 20 years, impacting their health and increasing disease risks.

Vo Thu